This evaluations comparison report compares baseline and current models.
Models Recommendation Summary: Baseline: 1x Tie: 0x Current: 0x
| Baseline Model | Current Model | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | ✓ BASELINE |
This comparison analyzes differences between baseline model and current model evaluation results to help identify how models perform across test cases. The comparison matches test cases by their question/prompt and model key, then evaluates changes in metrics, outputs, and retrieved context.
✓ RECOMMENDATION: Use BASELINE model claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte
The Baseline model is recommended. Baseline model won 9 more test cases using rank-based comparison (27 vs 18) • Baseline model has higher average rank (50.37 vs 48.63) • Current model has net -2 metrics flipped to failing (27 failed, 25 passed)
| Baseline Model | Current Model | |
|---|---|---|
| Key | 3fc7c719-030c-4946-9543-0a36bf0fb514 | ce8b0751-c05a-42bd-bc10-23a14b5e7e0f |
| Name | RAG model - LLM: claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219, corpus: ['sr1107a1.pdf'] | RAG model - LLM: claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219, corpus: ['sr1107a1.pdf'] |
| LLM Model Name | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219 | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219 |
| Model Type | h2ogpte | h2ogpte |
| Collection ID | 3460acbd-db16-4efb-bccd-4e62324f5d23 | 7e42e741-4156-43d0-a602-3c0afaeebb58 |
| Collection Name | Ephemeral H2O Sonar RAG collection (docs: ['sr1107a1.pdf']) | Ephemeral H2O Sonar RAG collection (docs: ['sr1107a1.pdf']) |
| Documents Count | 1 | 1 |
| Baseline Model Configuration | Current Model Configuration Diff | ||
|---|---|---|---|
{
"embedding_model": "BAAI/bge-m3"
}
|
Values Changed (1)
|
| Baseline | Current | |
|---|---|---|
| Test Case Ranks (49) | 27 | 18 (-9) |
| Metrics Ranks (15) | 50.37 | 48.63 (-1.75) |
| Test Case Wins (49) | 27 | 18 (-9) |
| Metrics Wins (15) | 223 | 178 (-45) |
| Flipped Test Cases (49) | - | 52 |
| Flipped to Passed | - | 25 |
| Flipped to Failed | - | 27 |
| Empty Contexts (49) | 0 | 0 |
Legend:
| Metric | Baseline Ranks | Current Ranks | Baseline Wins | Current Wins | Baseline Avg | Current Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| groundedness | 51.91 | 47.09 (-4.82) | 25 | 18 (-7) | 0.87224959 | 0.86853098 (-0.00371861) |
| answer_accuracy | 51.56 | 47.44 (-4.12) | 23 | 21 (-2) | 0.80369193 | 0.80070881 (-0.00298312) |
| rouge_l | 50.94 | 48.06 (-2.88) | 29 | 20 (-9) | 0.17877841 | 0.17625487 (-0.00252354) |
| rouge_2 | 50.88 | 48.12 (-2.76) | 29 | 20 (-9) | 0.14859257 | 0.14217863 (-0.00641394) |
| model_failures | 50.50 | 48.50 (-2.00) | 7 | 5 (-2) | 0.40816327 | 0.44897959 (+0.04081633) |
| model_generation_failures | 50.50 | 48.50 (-2.00) | 7 | 5 (-2) | 0.40816327 | 0.44897959 (+0.04081633) |
| model_passes | 50.50 | 48.50 (-2.00) | 7 | 5 (-2) | 0.59183673 | 0.55102041 (-0.04081633) |
| precision_relevancy | 50.43 | 48.57 (-1.86) | 27 | 22 (-5) | 0.86192643 | 0.86097383 (-0.00095260) |
| recall_relevancy | 50.34 | 48.66 (-1.67) | 6 | 2 (-4) | 0.90864094 | 0.90698915 (-0.00165179) |
| rouge_1 | 50.06 | 48.94 (-1.12) | 30 | 19 (-11) | 0.21373995 | 0.21112891 (-0.00261104) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 49.86 | 49.14 (-0.71) | 22 | 27 (+5) | 0.84152823 | 0.84066684 (-0.00086139) |
| min_answer_similarity | 49.63 | 49.37 (-0.27) | 11 | 14 (+3) | 0.75441578 | 0.75298913 (-0.00142665) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 49.50 | 49.50 | 0 | 0 | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 49.50 | 49.50 | 0 | 0 | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 49.50 | 49.50 | 0 | 0 | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
Legend:
Operational performance metrics aggregated across all test cases. Lower costs and durations indicate better efficiency. Metrics include per-test-case aggregations (cost, duration) and per-model LLM statistics (tokens, request counts).
| Metric | Baseline | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Total Cost (USD) | $1.9911 | $2.2281 (+$0.2371) |
| Avg Duration (s) | 10.65 | 10.57 (-0.08s) |
| Min Duration (s) | 6.90 | 7.31 (+0.41s) |
| Max Duration (s) | 16.71 | 17.08 (+0.37s) |
| Successful Requests | 50 | 50 |
| Failed Requests | 0 | 0 |
| Retried Requests | 2 | 0 |
| Timed Out Requests | 2 | 0 |
| LLM Calls | 156 | 156 |
| Input Tokens | 634,155 | 634,659 (+504) |
| Output Tokens | 28,268 | 27,353 (-915) |
| Tokens Per Second | 25.45 | 26.15 (+0.69) |
| Time To First Token (s) | 1.05 | 1.06 (+0.02s) |
Legend:
Test cases sorted by the highest absolute difference between Baseline Ranks and Current Ranks . Test cases where the rank-based comparison shows the most significant difference appear first.
| Rank | Question | Baseline Ranks | Current Ranks | Baseline Wins | Current Wins | Changed Metrics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | What is the role of developers in model development? | 2.00 | 1.00 (-1.00) | 11 | 0 (-11) | 11 |
| #2 | How should models be developed and implemented? | 1.27 | 1.73 (+0.45) | 3 | 8 (+5) | 11 |
| #3 | What is the purpose of model validation in banking? | 1.73 | 1.27 (-0.45) | 8 | 3 (-5) | 11 |
| #4 | What are the factors that influence model risk? | 1.70 | 1.30 (-0.40) | 7 | 3 (-4) | 10 |
| #5 | How can model risk be managed? | 1.64 | 1.36 (-0.27) | 7 | 4 (-3) | 11 |
| #6 | How can banks support appropriate incentives in validation? | 1.60 | 1.40 (-0.20) | 6 | 4 (-2) | 10 |
| #7 | How should banks approach back-testing? | 1.60 | 1.40 (-0.20) | 6 | 4 (-2) | 10 |
| #8 | What should be validated in model validation? | 1.45 | 1.55 (+0.09) | 5 | 6 (+1) | 11 |
| #9 | Why is independence important in model validation? | 1.45 | 1.55 (+0.09) | 5 | 6 (+1) | 11 |
| #10 | How should models be integrated with larger information systems? | 1.50 | 1.50 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
Question: What should validation reports include?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.85373150 | 0.83029241 (-0.02343909) |
| groundedness | 0.88694659 | 0.87167708 (-0.01526950) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.90832374 | 0.88182240 (-0.02650133) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.85373150 | 0.83029241 (-0.02343909) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.84328679 | 0.84202779 (-0.00125900) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.86918965 | 0.86918965 |
| rouge_1 | 0.61956522 | 0.55339806 (-0.06616716) |
| rouge_2 | 0.58241758 | 0.51960784 (-0.06280974) |
| rouge_l | 0.38043478 | 0.52427184 (+0.14383706) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What should validation reports include? | |
| Expected answer | Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. They should also include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key assumptions. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, validation reports should include several key elements to effectively communicate model validation results. Specifically, on page 21 of SR Letter 11-7, the document states that "Effective validation reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key assumptions." The validation reports should also "articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted." These components ensure that validation findings are clearly communicated to relevant stakeholders, including senior management and the board, allowing them to understand model risks and make informed decisions about model usage and any necessary remediation efforts. | According to the document, validation reports should include several key elements: 1. Clear executive summaries that state the model's purpose 2. An accessible synopsis of model and validation results 3. Identification of major limitations and key assumptions 4. Articulation of model aspects that were reviewed 5. Highlighting of potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions 6. Determination of whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted This information is specifically mentioned on page 21 of SR Letter 11-7, which states: "Effective validation reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key assumptions." The document also notes that validation reports should "articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted." |
| Retrieved Context |
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
|
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
3. Outcomes Analysis
The third core element of the validation process is outcomes analysis, a comparison of
model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes. The precise nature of the comparison
depends on the objectives of a model, and might include an assessment of the accuracy of
estimates or forecasts, an evaluation of rank-ordering ability, or other appropriate tests. In
all cases, such comparisons help to evaluate model performance, by establishing expected
ranges for those actual outcomes in relation to the intended objectives and assessing the
reasons for observed variation between the two. If outcomes analysis produces evidence
of poor performance, the bank should take action to address those issues. Outcomes
analysis typically relies on statistical tests or other quantitative measures. It can also
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What is informed conservatism?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.80880342 | 0.78262286 (-0.02618056) |
| groundedness | 0.87647974 | 0.87803997 (+0.00156024) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84141445 | 0.84210386 (+0.00068941) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.80880342 | 0.78262286 (-0.02618056) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.78648469 | 0.79622704 (+0.00974235) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.92224491 | 0.92224491 |
| rouge_1 | 0.17670683 | 0.17777778 (+0.00107095) |
| rouge_2 | 0.03238866 | 0.04477612 (+0.01238746) |
| rouge_l | 0.12048193 | 0.12592593 (+0.00544400) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is informed conservatism? | |
| Expected answer | Informed conservatism refers to a approach that involves using judgment and experience to make adjustments to model inputs or design, or to supplement model results with other analysis and information. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, informed conservatism is a tool used to manage model risk effectively. It is mentioned on page 4 where it states that "Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving models." The document further elaborates on page 8 that while conservative use of models is generally prudent, banks should be careful in applying conservatism broadly because "the impact of such conservatism in complex models may not be obvious or intuitive." It notes that "model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not be truly conservative compared with alternative methods" and that "initially conservative assumptions may not remain conservative over time." The document advises that banks should "justify and substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users." It suggests that sensitivity analysis or stress testing can demonstrate that a model is indeed conservative. The document also cautions that "conservatism can become an impediment to proper model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from making the effort to improve the model" and that "excessive conservatism can lead model users to discount the model outputs." | According to the document, informed conservatism is a tool used to manage model risk effectively. It is described as an approach that can be applied in either the inputs or the design of a model, or through explicit adjustments to model outputs. The document explains that using informed conservatism is prudent in general, but banks should be careful when applying it broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments to address model risk. The document notes that "the impact of such conservatism in complex models may not be obvious or intuitive" and that "model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not be truly conservative compared with alternative methods." Additionally, "initially conservative assumptions may not remain conservative over time." When implementing informed conservatism, banks should: - Justify and substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative - Provide a clear definition and measurement of that conservatism - Communicate this information to model users The document suggests that sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a model is indeed conservative. Another approach is for banks to "hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses associated with model risk." However, the document cautions that conservatism can become "an impediment to proper model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from making the effort to improve the model." Furthermore, "excessive conservatism can lead model users to discount the model outputs." |
| Retrieved Context |
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 3
III. OVERVIEW OF MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
For the purposes of this document, the term model refers to a quantitative method,
system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, financial, or mathematical theories,
techniques, and assumptions to process input data into quantitative estimates. A model
consists of three components: an information input component, which delivers
assumptions and data to the model; a processing component, which transforms inputs into
estimates; and a reporting component, which translates the estimates into useful business
information. Models meeting this definition might be used for analyzing business
strategies, informing business decisions, identifying and measuring risks, valuing
exposures, instruments or positions, conducting stress testing, assessing adequacy of
capital, managing client assets, measuring compliance with internal limits, maintaining
the formal control apparatus of the bank, or meeting financial or regulatory reporting
requirements and issuing public disclosures. The definition of model also covers
quantitative approaches whose inputs are partially or wholly qualitative or based on
expert judgment, provided that the output is quantitative in nature. [Footnote
3
- While outside the scope of this guidance, more qualitative approaches used by banking organizations—
i.e., those not defined as models according to this guidance—should also be subject to a rigorous control
process.
End
of
Footnote
3.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
|
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
|
Question: What is the purpose of ongoing monitoring?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.82363999 | 0.82363999 |
| groundedness | 0.85456322 | 0.85456322 |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.86341696 | 0.86149134 (-0.00192562) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.82363999 | 0.82363999 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.83830363 | 0.83167318 (-0.00663045) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89283360 | 0.89283360 |
| rouge_1 | 0.31799163 | 0.31404959 (-0.00394205) |
| rouge_2 | 0.27848101 | 0.27500000 (-0.00348101) |
| rouge_l | 0.30962343 | 0.30578512 (-0.00383831) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the purpose of ongoing monitoring? | |
| Expected answer | Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures, activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its original scope is valid. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the purpose of ongoing monitoring, which is the second core element of the validation process, is to confirm that the model is appropriately implemented, is being used, and is performing as intended. Specifically, ongoing monitoring serves several key purposes: 1. To evaluate whether changes in products, exposures, activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or replacement of the model 2. To verify that any extension of the model beyond its original scope is valid 3. To regularly assess any model limitations identified in the development stage 4. To track known model limitations and identify new ones 5. To ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business practices do not create new model limitations 6. To serve as an important check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic The document emphasizes that monitoring begins when a model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use and should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved. | According to the document, the purpose of ongoing monitoring, which is the second core element of the validation process, is to confirm that "the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is performing as intended" (page 12). Ongoing monitoring serves several specific purposes: 1. To evaluate whether changes in products, exposures, activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or replacement of the model 2. To verify that any extension of the model beyond its original scope is valid 3. To regularly assess any model limitations identified in the development stage 4. To track known model limitations and identify new ones 5. To ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business practices do not create new model limitations 6. To serve as "an important check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions" (page 10) The document emphasizes that ongoing monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Benchmarking is the comparison of a given model's inputs and outputs to estimates from
alternative internal or external data or models. It can be incorporated in model
development as well as in ongoing monitoring. For credit risk models, examples of
benchmarks include models from vendor firms or industry consortia and data from retail
credit bureaus. Pricing models for securities and derivatives often can be compared with
alternative models that are more accurate or comprehensive but also too time consuming
to run on a daily basis. Whatever the source, benchmark models should be rigorous and
benchmark data should be accurate and complete to ensure a reasonable comparison.
Discrepancies between the model output and benchmarks should trigger investigation
into the sources and degree of the differences, and examination of whether they are
within an expected or appropriate range given the nature of the comparison. The results
of that analysis may suggest revisions to the model. However, differences do not
necessarily indicate that the model is in error. The benchmark itself is an alternative
prediction, and the differences may be due to the different data or methods used. If the
model and the benchmark match well, that is evidence in favor of the model, but it should
be interpreted with caution so the bank does not get a false degree of comfort.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
Benchmarking is the comparison of a given model's inputs and outputs to estimates from
alternative internal or external data or models. It can be incorporated in model
development as well as in ongoing monitoring. For credit risk models, examples of
benchmarks include models from vendor firms or industry consortia and data from retail
credit bureaus. Pricing models for securities and derivatives often can be compared with
alternative models that are more accurate or comprehensive but also too time consuming
to run on a daily basis. Whatever the source, benchmark models should be rigorous and
benchmark data should be accurate and complete to ensure a reasonable comparison.
Discrepancies between the model output and benchmarks should trigger investigation
into the sources and degree of the differences, and examination of whether they are
within an expected or appropriate range given the nature of the comparison. The results
of that analysis may suggest revisions to the model. However, differences do not
necessarily indicate that the model is in error. The benchmark itself is an alternative
prediction, and the differences may be due to the different data or methods used. If the
model and the benchmark match well, that is evidence in favor of the model, but it should
be interpreted with caution so the bank does not get a false degree of comfort.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
|
Question: How should banks approach model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.81899565 | 0.78668501 (-0.03231064) |
| groundedness | 0.83665180 | 0.85073092 (+0.01407912) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.81374374 | 0.82899865 (+0.01525490) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73578360 | 0.73578360 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88748225 | 0.87877754 (-0.00870471) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.90319460 | 0.90319460 |
| rouge_1 | 0.15929204 | 0.17446809 (+0.01517605) |
| rouge_2 | 0.04888889 | 0.05982906 (+0.01094017) |
| rouge_l | 0.11061947 | 0.13191489 (+0.02129542) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How should banks approach model development? | |
| Expected answer | Banks should approach model development with a focus on sound risk management practices. They should ensure that models are developed and used in a controlled environment, with proper documentation, testing, and validation. They should also ensure that models are regularly reviewed and updated to reflect changing market conditions and business needs. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks should approach model development through a disciplined and knowledgeable process that aligns with the bank's goals and policies. The SR Letter 11-7 outlines several key aspects of effective model development: 1. **Clear Purpose Statement**: Development should begin with "a clear statement of purpose to ensure that model development is aligned with the intended use" (page 5). 2. **Sound Theoretical Foundation**: The design, theory, and logic underlying models should be "well documented and generally supported by published research and sound industry practice" (page 6). 3. **Detailed Documentation**: Model methodologies and processing components should be "explained in detail with particular attention to merits and limitations" (page 6). 4. **Data Quality Assessment**: There should be "rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance, and appropriate documentation" (page 6). If data proxies are used, they should be "carefully identified, justified, and documented" (page 6). 5. **Multidisciplinary Approach**: Model development is "often a multidisciplinary activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields" (page 5). 6. **Judgment and Experience**: The document emphasizes that "model development is not a straightforward or routine technical process" and that "the experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing components" (page 5). 7. **Testing and Validation**: Models should be subject to sensitivity analysis to "check the impact of small changes in inputs and parameter values on model outputs" (page 11) and stress testing "to check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values" (page 11). 8. **Accounting for Uncertainty**: Banks should understand and account for model uncertainty and inaccuracy, potentially by "using a range of outputs, rather than a simple point estimate" or by "explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism" (page 8). 9. **Systems Integration**: Models should be "properly coordinated with the capabilities and requirements of information systems" with "substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity" (page 7). 10. **User Feedback**: The development process should incorporate "valuable business insight" from model users, as "questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models" (page 7). The approach to model development should be commensurate with the bank's risk exposures, business activities, and the extent and complexity of its model use. | According to the document, banks should approach model development through a disciplined and knowledgeable process that aligns with the bank's goals and policies. The document outlines several key aspects of effective model development: 1. **Expertise and Judgment**: Model development is not a straightforward technical process but requires experience and judgment of developers. It's often a multidisciplinary activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. The training and experience of developers significantly affects the extent of model risk. 2. **Documentation**: Banks should thoroughly document all aspects of model development, including the underlying theory, mathematical specifications, numerical techniques, assumptions, limitations, and data sources. Documentation should be detailed enough that parties unfamiliar with the model can understand how it operates. 3. **Theoretical Soundness**: The theory underlying the model should be well-documented and generally supported by published research and sound industry practice. Developers should ensure that components work as intended, are appropriate for the business purpose, and are conceptually and mathematically sound. 4. **Data Quality**: There should be rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance with appropriate documentation. Developers should demonstrate that data is suitable for the model and consistent with the theory and methodology. If data proxies or external data are used, they should be carefully identified, justified, and documented. 5. **Testing and Analysis**: Banks should employ sensitivity analysis to check the impact of small changes in inputs on model outputs and conduct model stress testing to verify robustness across a wide range of inputs, including extreme values. 6. **Qualitative Elements**: Banks should ensure that judgmental and qualitative aspects of their models are developed soundly. Any adjustments made during development should be conducted systematically and well-documented. 7. **Systems Integration**: Model calculations should be properly coordinated with information systems capabilities to ensure data integrity, with controls and testing for proper implementation. 8. **User Feedback**: Model users can provide valuable business insight during the development process, and constructive questioning from business managers can help model developers explain and justify assumptions. 9. **Conservative Approach**: While conservative use of models is generally prudent, banks should be careful in applying conservatism broadly, as the impact in complex models may not be obvious. Banks should justify and substantiate claims of conservatism. 10. **Validation**: All models should undergo validation before implementation to ensure they are functioning as intended and are appropriate for their intended use. The document emphasizes that model risk management begins with robust model development, and this development process should be tailored to the specific applications and informed by business uses. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Management should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and
other quantitative testing. If testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable
in some circumstances, management should consider modifying certain model properties,
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 16
As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 8
indications of the model's accuracy, robustness, and stability as well as information on
model limitations.
An understanding of model uncertainty and inaccuracy and a demonstration that the bank
is accounting for them appropriately are important outcomes of effective model
development, implementation, and use. Because they are by definition imperfect
representations of reality, all models have some degree of uncertainty and inaccuracy.
These can sometimes be quantified, for example, by an assessment of the potential
impact of factors that are unobservable or not fully incorporated in the model, or by the
confidence interval around a statistical model's point estimate. Indeed, using a range of
outputs, rather than a simple point estimate, can be a useful way to signal model
uncertainty and avoid spurious precision. At other times, only a qualitative assessment of
model uncertainty and inaccuracy is possible. In either case, it can be prudent for banks
to account for model uncertainty by explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to
produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism. Accounting
for model uncertainty can also include judgmental conservative adjustments to model
output, placing less emphasis on that model's output, or ensuring that the model is only
used when supplemented by other models or approaches. [Footnote
5
- To the extent that models are used to generate amounts included in public financial statements, any
adjustments for model uncertainty must comply with generally accepted accounting principles.
End
of
Footnote
5.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
|
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What is effective challenge of models?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.77404659 | 0.76976685 (-0.00427973) |
| groundedness | 0.89869256 | 0.89484494 (-0.00384763) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83446643 | 0.83077840 (-0.00368803) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.74283797 | 0.74283797 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.86623171 | 0.85714233 (-0.00908939) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89604080 | 0.89099126 (-0.00504953) |
| rouge_1 | 0.18333333 | 0.14617940 (-0.03715393) |
| rouge_2 | 0.15966387 | 0.12709030 (-0.03257356) |
| rouge_l | 0.17500000 | 0.13953488 (-0.03546512) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is effective challenge of models? | |
| Expected answer | Effective challenge of models refers to critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, effective challenge of models is defined as "critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes" (page 4). It is a guiding principle for managing model risk. The document explains that effective challenge depends on three key components: 1. **Incentives**: These are stronger when there is greater separation between the challenge process and model development, and when challenge is supported by well-designed compensation practices and corporate culture. 2. **Competence**: Technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis and critique of models. 3. **Influence**: Challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure actions are taken to address model issues. This influence comes from a combination of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from higher levels of management. The document also notes that effective challenge is part of model validation, which should be performed by staff with "appropriate incentives, competence, and influence" (page 9). Independence is an important aspect of effective challenge, as it helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, as there may be additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. | According to the document, effective challenge of models is defined as "critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes" (page 4). It is a guiding principle for managing model risk. The document explains that effective challenge depends on three key components: 1. **Incentives**: These are stronger when there is greater separation between the challenge process and model development, and when challenge is supported by well-designed compensation practices and corporate culture. The document notes that "banks can support appropriate incentives in validation through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review" (page 9). 2. **Competence**: Technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis and critique. Staff conducting validation work "should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise" and "a high level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models" (page 9). 3. **Influence**: Challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure that actions are taken to address model issues. This influence comes from "a combination of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from higher levels of management" (page 4). Staff conducting validation "should have explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies" (page 9). The document emphasizes that effective challenge is an essential part of model validation, which should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence. Independence from model development and use is important, as it helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
|
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
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Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
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However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
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Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
|
Question: Who should perform model validation?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.79129534 | 0.79529432 (+0.00399898) |
| groundedness | 0.88199239 | 0.88305971 (+0.00106731) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.85287016 | 0.85378743 (+0.00091728) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.79129534 | 0.79529432 (+0.00399898) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.86263925 | 0.86455801 (+0.00191877) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91483897 | 0.91483897 |
| rouge_1 | 0.25324675 | 0.25657895 (+0.00333219) |
| rouge_2 | 0.21568627 | 0.21854305 (+0.00285677) |
| rouge_l | 0.23376623 | 0.23684211 (+0.00307587) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | Who should perform model validation? | |
| Expected answer | Model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence, who are not responsible for development or use of the model and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence. The document emphasizes that validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use. Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid. The document states on page 9: "Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias." The document acknowledges that as a practical matter, some validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; however, it is essential that such validation work be subject to critical review by an independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation. The document also mentions that banks may engage external resources to help execute certain validation activities, which "may provide added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge." However, when external resources are used, a designated internal party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation activities conducted by external resources. Additionally, the document notes that internal audit has a role in ensuring that validation work is conducted properly, but internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk management activities; rather, it is to evaluate whether model risk management is comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. | According to the document, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence. The document emphasizes that validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use. Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid. The document states on page 9: "Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias." The document acknowledges that some validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; however, it emphasizes that such validation work must be subject to critical review by an independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation. Additionally, the document mentions that banks may decide to engage external resources to help execute certain validation activities, which "may provide added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge." However, when external resources are used, a designated internal party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation activities conducted by external resources. The document also notes that internal audit has a role in ensuring that validation work is conducted properly, but internal audit's primary role is to evaluate whether model risk management is comprehensive, rigorous, and effective, rather than to duplicate model validation activities. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
|
Question: What is the purpose of model validation?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.82485287 | 0.78825915 (-0.03659372) |
| groundedness | 0.93208694 | 0.84979547 (-0.08229147) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.89177202 | 0.86585456 (-0.02591746) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.82485287 | 0.78825915 (-0.03659372) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88069807 | 0.87327071 (-0.00742736) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.93144372 | 0.93144372 |
| rouge_1 | 0.17171717 | 0.14782609 (-0.02389108) |
| rouge_2 | 0.11224490 | 0.09649123 (-0.01575367) |
| rouge_l | 0.15151515 | 0.13913043 (-0.01238472) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the purpose of model validation? | |
| Expected answer | The purpose of model validation is to ensure that models are sound and appropriate for their intended use. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the purpose of model validation is to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound, identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact (page 9). Model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods, thereby providing information about the source and extent of model risk (page 10). Additionally, validation can reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or predicted values. If outcomes consistently fall outside an acceptable range, the models should be redeveloped (page 10). The document emphasizes that all model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to validation, and this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased from or developed by vendors or consultants (page 9). | According to the document, the purpose of model validation is to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound, identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact (page 9). Model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it provides information about the source and extent of model risk (page 10). Additionally, validation can reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the models should be redeveloped (page 10). The document outlines three core elements of comprehensive validation: 1. Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence 2. Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking 3. Outcomes analysis, including back-testing (page 11) Model validation is an essential element of model risk management, along with robust model development, implementation, and use, as well as governance that sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities (page 5). |
| Retrieved Context |
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
|
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
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Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
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|
Question: How often should back-testing be performed?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.77571006 | 0.81964409 (+0.04393404) |
| groundedness | 0.83191205 | 0.87178095 (+0.03986890) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.80276182 | 0.85536948 (+0.05260766) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.72449287 | 0.81964409 (+0.09515122) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.82478943 | 0.82031935 (-0.00447008) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.85956677 | 0.85956677 |
| rouge_1 | 0.17880795 | 0.25751073 (+0.07870278) |
| rouge_2 | 0.12666667 | 0.18181818 (+0.05515152) |
| rouge_l | 0.16556291 | 0.17167382 (+0.00611091) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How often should back-testing be performed? | |
| Expected answer | Back-testing should be performed over a longer time period, and banks should also employ outcomes analysis consisting of "early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after model introduction. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, back-testing should be performed as part of ongoing validation activities, but the specific frequency is not explicitly stated with a single timeframe. However, the document provides several relevant guidelines about the timing of validation activities, which includes back-testing: 1. Banks should conduct "a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient" (page 10). 2. The document states that "validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use" (page 10). 3. For models with long forecast horizons, back-testing should be supplemented by "evaluation over shorter periods" and banks should employ "early warning" metrics designed to measure performance "beginning very shortly after model introduction" (page 15). 4. The document indicates that "many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it becomes available" (page 12). 5. The document notes that "monitoring begins when a model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved" (page 12). Therefore, while back-testing should be performed regularly as part of ongoing validation, the specific frequency should be determined based on the model's nature, risk level, and the availability of new data, with a minimum annual review of validation activities. | According to the document, banks should conduct a periodic review of each model at least annually, but more frequently if warranted, to determine whether it is working as intended and if existing validation activities are sufficient. While the document doesn't specify an exact frequency specifically for back-testing, it indicates that back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis that should be part of ongoing monitoring activities. For models with long forecast horizons, the document acknowledges that accumulating the necessary data for back-testing can take time. In these cases, banks should supplement back-testing with "evaluation over shorter periods" and employ "early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning shortly after model introduction, as well as trend analysis of performance over time. However, these supplementary analyses "are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer time period." The document emphasizes that ongoing validation activities, which include back-testing, should continue after a model goes into use, with a frequency "appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved." Additionally, material changes to models should also trigger validation activities, including back-testing. |
| Retrieved Context |
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
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Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
3. Outcomes Analysis
The third core element of the validation process is outcomes analysis, a comparison of
model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes. The precise nature of the comparison
depends on the objectives of a model, and might include an assessment of the accuracy of
estimates or forecasts, an evaluation of rank-ordering ability, or other appropriate tests. In
all cases, such comparisons help to evaluate model performance, by establishing expected
ranges for those actual outcomes in relation to the intended objectives and assessing the
reasons for observed variation between the two. If outcomes analysis produces evidence
of poor performance, the bank should take action to address those issues. Outcomes
analysis typically relies on statistical tests or other quantitative measures. It can also
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Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
|
Question: How often should ongoing monitoring be conducted?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.77447138 | 0.83782308 (+0.06335171) |
| groundedness | 0.85453207 | 0.86237138 (+0.00783931) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84892071 | 0.89219436 (+0.04327365) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.77447138 | 0.83782308 (+0.06335171) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.82292467 | 0.82331029 (+0.00038562) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.87674619 | 0.87674619 |
| rouge_1 | 0.27705628 | 0.26229508 (-0.01476120) |
| rouge_2 | 0.27074236 | 0.25619835 (-0.01454401) |
| rouge_l | 0.27705628 | 0.26229508 (-0.01476120) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How often should ongoing monitoring be conducted? | |
| Expected answer | Ongoing monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, ongoing monitoring should be conducted periodically over time, with the frequency determined by several factors. Specifically, on page 12 of SR Letter 11-7, it states: "This monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved." The document also mentions that banks should conduct "a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient" (page 10). This annual minimum applies to the periodic review of models, which is part of the ongoing validation activities. Additionally, the document indicates that "material changes to models should also be subject to validation" (page 10), suggesting that monitoring and validation should occur whenever significant changes are made to a model, regardless of the regular schedule. The frequency of monitoring should therefore be tailored to: 1. The nature and complexity of the model 2. The availability of new data or modeling approaches 3. The magnitude of risk involved with the model 4. Any material changes to the model | According to the document, ongoing monitoring should be conducted periodically with a frequency that is appropriate to the specific model's characteristics. The document states on page 12: "This monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved." Additionally, the document mentions that banks should conduct "a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient" (page 10). The document also indicates that ongoing monitoring is essential after a model goes into use and should be continuous to track known limitations and identify new ones. Some monitoring activities, such as analysis of overrides, sensitivity analysis, and checks for robustness, should be performed "regularly" or "on a regular basis," though specific timeframes for these activities are not prescribed beyond the annual minimum review requirement. The frequency of monitoring should ultimately be determined based on factors such as: - The nature of the model - The availability of new data or modeling approaches - The magnitude of risk involved with the model - Whether there are material changes to the model (which would trigger validation activities) |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 14
include expert judgment to check the intuition behind the outcomes and confirm that the
results make sense. When a model itself relies on expert judgment, quantitative outcomes
analysis helps to evaluate the quality of that judgment. Outcomes analysis should be
conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line
with design objectives and business uses.
A variety of quantitative and qualitative testing and analytical techniques can be used in
outcomes analysis. The choice of technique should be based on the model's
methodology, its complexity, data availability, and the magnitude of potential model risk
to the bank. Outcomes analysis should involve a range of tests because any individual test
will have weaknesses. For example, some tests are better at checking a model's ability to
rank-order or segment observations on a relative basis, whereas others are better at
checking absolute forecast accuracy. Tests should be designed for each situation, as not
all will be effective or feasible in every circumstance, and attention should be paid to
choosing the appropriate type of outcomes analysis for a particular model.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 16
As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 20
External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
|
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
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Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 14
include expert judgment to check the intuition behind the outcomes and confirm that the
results make sense. When a model itself relies on expert judgment, quantitative outcomes
analysis helps to evaluate the quality of that judgment. Outcomes analysis should be
conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line
with design objectives and business uses.
A variety of quantitative and qualitative testing and analytical techniques can be used in
outcomes analysis. The choice of technique should be based on the model's
methodology, its complexity, data availability, and the magnitude of potential model risk
to the bank. Outcomes analysis should involve a range of tests because any individual test
will have weaknesses. For example, some tests are better at checking a model's ability to
rank-order or segment observations on a relative basis, whereas others are better at
checking absolute forecast accuracy. Tests should be designed for each situation, as not
all will be effective or feasible in every circumstance, and attention should be paid to
choosing the appropriate type of outcomes analysis for a particular model.
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
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Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
|
Question: What are the three key elements of effective challenge?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.75030563 | 0.80992980 (+0.05962417) |
| groundedness | 0.88027091 | 0.88287689 (+0.00260598) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84155841 | 0.84122304 (-0.00033538) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.75030563 | 0.74803154 (-0.00227409) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.82608292 | 0.82926929 (+0.00318637) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89716943 | 0.89716943 |
| rouge_1 | 0.13714286 | 0.13114754 (-0.00599532) |
| rouge_2 | 0.08092486 | 0.07734807 (-0.00357679) |
| rouge_l | 0.13714286 | 0.13114754 (-0.00599532) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are the three key elements of effective challenge? | |
| Expected answer | The three key elements of effective challenge are: incentives, competence, and influence. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the three key elements of effective challenge are: 1. Incentives - The document states that "Incentives to provide effective challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed compensation practices and corporate culture." (page 4) 2. Competence - The text explains that "Competence is a key to effectiveness since technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis and critique." (page 4) 3. Influence - The document notes that "challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from higher levels of management." (page 4) These three elements together form the foundation of effective challenge, which is described as "critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes." | According to the document, the three key elements of effective challenge are: 1. Incentives - The document states on page 4 that "Incentives to provide effective challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed compensation practices and corporate culture." 2. Competence - The document explains that "Competence is a key to effectiveness since technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis and critique." 3. Influence - The document notes that "challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from higher levels of management." These three elements together form the foundation of "effective challenge" which is described as "critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes" and is identified as "a guiding principle for managing model risk." |
| Retrieved Context |
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
3. Outcomes Analysis
The third core element of the validation process is outcomes analysis, a comparison of
model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes. The precise nature of the comparison
depends on the objectives of a model, and might include an assessment of the accuracy of
estimates or forecasts, an evaluation of rank-ordering ability, or other appropriate tests. In
all cases, such comparisons help to evaluate model performance, by establishing expected
ranges for those actual outcomes in relation to the intended objectives and assessing the
reasons for observed variation between the two. If outcomes analysis produces evidence
of poor performance, the bank should take action to address those issues. Outcomes
analysis typically relies on statistical tests or other quantitative measures. It can also
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Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
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Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
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Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
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V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
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adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
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Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
SR Letter 11-7
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Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
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This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
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External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
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|
Question: How often should a bank update its model inventory?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.81729945 | 0.79570034 (-0.02159911) |
| groundedness | 0.86025858 | 0.84022306 (-0.02003551) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.85873185 | 0.83520629 (-0.02352556) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.81729945 | 0.79570034 (-0.02159911) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.83835758 | 0.82616914 (-0.01218844) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.88634425 | 0.85426724 (-0.03207701) |
| rouge_1 | 0.11000000 | 0.09243697 (-0.01756303) |
| rouge_2 | 0.02020202 | 0.03389831 (+0.01369628) |
| rouge_l | 0.09000000 | 0.07563025 (-0.01436975) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How often should a bank update its model inventory? | |
| Expected answer | A bank should update its model inventory regularly to ensure that it remains current and accurate. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models in their inventory, but there is no specific frequency mentioned for updating the model inventory itself. The document states on page 20 that the inventory should "indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy." While the document does specify that banks should "conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient" (page 10), this refers to model validation rather than specifically updating the model inventory. The document also mentions that "model risk management policies should be consistent with this guidance" and that "the board or its delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually" (page 17), but again this refers to policies rather than the inventory itself. Therefore, while the document emphasizes the importance of maintaining a comprehensive model inventory, it does not explicitly state how often this inventory should be updated. | According to the document, while the SR Letter 11-7 provides guidance on maintaining a model inventory, it does not explicitly specify a required frequency for updating the model inventory. The document states on page 20 that "Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired." It mentions that the inventory should "indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy." The guidance does indicate that model validation activities should be conducted on an ongoing basis, with page 10 stating that "Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient." Additionally, on page 21, it notes that "model developers should have responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes." While these statements suggest regular review and updating of model documentation, the document does not provide a specific timeframe for updating the model inventory itself. The guidance emphasizes that practices should be "commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and the extent and complexity of its model use" (page 21). |
| Retrieved Context |
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
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Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
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Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
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Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
SR Letter 11-7
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As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
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Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
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Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 8
indications of the model's accuracy, robustness, and stability as well as information on
model limitations.
An understanding of model uncertainty and inaccuracy and a demonstration that the bank
is accounting for them appropriately are important outcomes of effective model
development, implementation, and use. Because they are by definition imperfect
representations of reality, all models have some degree of uncertainty and inaccuracy.
These can sometimes be quantified, for example, by an assessment of the potential
impact of factors that are unobservable or not fully incorporated in the model, or by the
confidence interval around a statistical model's point estimate. Indeed, using a range of
outputs, rather than a simple point estimate, can be a useful way to signal model
uncertainty and avoid spurious precision. At other times, only a qualitative assessment of
model uncertainty and inaccuracy is possible. In either case, it can be prudent for banks
to account for model uncertainty by explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to
produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism. Accounting
for model uncertainty can also include judgmental conservative adjustments to model
output, placing less emphasis on that model's output, or ensuring that the model is only
used when supplemented by other models or approaches. [Footnote
5
- To the extent that models are used to generate amounts included in public financial statements, any
adjustments for model uncertainty must comply with generally accepted accounting principles.
End
of
Footnote
5.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 16
As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 17
Board of Directors and Senior Management
Model risk governance is provided at the highest level by the board of directors and
senior management when they establish a bank-wide approach to model risk
management. As part of their overall responsibilities, a bank's board and senior
management should establish a strong model risk management framework that fits into
the broader risk management of the organization. That framework should be grounded in
an understanding of model risk—not just for individual models but also in the aggregate.
The framework should include standards for model development, implementation, use,
and validation.
While the board is ultimately responsible, it generally delegates to senior management
the responsibility for executing and maintaining an effective model risk management
framework. Duties of senior management include establishing adequate policies and
procedures and ensuring compliance, assigning competent staff, overseeing model
development and implementation, evaluating model results, ensuring effective challenge,
reviewing validation and internal audit findings, and taking prompt remedial action when
necessary. In the same manner as for other major areas of risk, senior management,
directly and through relevant committees, is responsible for regularly reporting to the
board on significant model risk, from individual models and in the aggregate, and on
compliance with policy. Board members should ensure that the level of model risk is
within their tolerance and direct changes where appropriate. These actions will set the
tone for the whole organization about the importance of model risk and the need for
active model risk management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
|
Question: What are some limitations of back-testing?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.82391312 | 0.83039922 (+0.00648610) |
| groundedness | 0.87941623 | 0.87941623 |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.81414001 | 0.80244185 (-0.01169817) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.69365478 | 0.69365478 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.83764179 | 0.83695255 (-0.00068924) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.85250218 | 0.86184984 (+0.00934766) |
| rouge_1 | 0.18181818 | 0.17898833 (-0.00282985) |
| rouge_2 | 0.07171315 | 0.04705882 (-0.02465432) |
| rouge_l | 0.14229249 | 0.11673152 (-0.02556097) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are some limitations of back-testing? | |
| Expected answer | Back-testing may not be feasible or effective in cases where there is a lack of data or price observability, and senior management should be fully informed of these limitations when using the models for decision making. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, back-testing has several limitations: 1. Analysis of back-testing results can pose challenges since "it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces unambiguous results" (page 15). 2. For models with long forecast horizons, back-testing is limited by the amount of time needed to accumulate the necessary data. The document states that "models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by evaluation over shorter periods" (page 15). 3. Statistical testing, which is essential in back-testing, "can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the interpretation of results" (page 15). 4. Back-testing may not be possible in some situations due to "lack of data or of price observability" (page 15). 5. Back-testing alone is not sufficient and should be complemented with other validation tools. The document recommends supplementing back-testing with "early warning" metrics and trend analysis of performance over time, noting these "are not substitutes for back-testing... but rather very important complements" (page 15). 6. Back-testing is just one form of outcomes analysis and should be part of a comprehensive validation approach that includes evaluation of conceptual soundness and ongoing monitoring. | According to the document, back-testing has several limitations: 1. Analysis of back-testing results can pose challenges since "it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces unambiguous results" (page 15). 2. Back-testing for models with long forecast horizons is difficult due to "the amount of time it would take to accumulate the necessary data" (page 15). 3. Statistical testing, which is essential for back-testing, "can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the interpretation of results" (page 15). 4. Back-testing alone is insufficient and should be supplemented by other validation methods, particularly for models with long forecast horizons, which should be "supplemented by evaluation over shorter periods" using "early warning" metrics and trend analysis (page 15). 5. Back-testing is just "one form of outcomes analysis" and needs to be part of a comprehensive validation framework that includes other elements like evaluation of conceptual soundness and ongoing monitoring (page 14). 6. At times, banks "may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-testing" due to "lack of data or of price observability" (page 15). 7. In-sample fit analysis and model performance in holdout samples "are not substitutes for back-testing" (page 14), indicating that back-testing has specific purposes that other testing methods cannot fulfill. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 4
from those calculations. Finally, the quality of model outputs depends on the
quality of input data and assumptions, and errors in inputs or incorrect
assumptions will lead to inaccurate outputs.
•
The model may be used incorrectly or inappropriately. Even a fundamentally
sound model producing accurate outputs consistent with the design objective of
the model may exhibit high model risk if it is misapplied or misused. Models by
their nature are simplifications of reality, and real-world events may prove those
simplifications inappropriate. This is even more of a concern if a model is used
outside the environment for which it was designed. Banks may do this
intentionally as they apply existing models to new products or markets, or
inadvertently as market conditions or customer behavior changes. Decision
makers need to understand the limitations of a model to avoid using it in ways
that are not consistent with the original intent. Limitations come in part from
weaknesses in the model due to its various shortcomings, approximations, and
uncertainties. Limitations are also a consequence of assumptions underlying a
model that may restrict the scope to a limited set of specific circumstances and
situations.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
|
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 4
from those calculations. Finally, the quality of model outputs depends on the
quality of input data and assumptions, and errors in inputs or incorrect
assumptions will lead to inaccurate outputs.
•
The model may be used incorrectly or inappropriately. Even a fundamentally
sound model producing accurate outputs consistent with the design objective of
the model may exhibit high model risk if it is misapplied or misused. Models by
their nature are simplifications of reality, and real-world events may prove those
simplifications inappropriate. This is even more of a concern if a model is used
outside the environment for which it was designed. Banks may do this
intentionally as they apply existing models to new products or markets, or
inadvertently as market conditions or customer behavior changes. Decision
makers need to understand the limitations of a model to avoid using it in ways
that are not consistent with the original intent. Limitations come in part from
weaknesses in the model due to its various shortcomings, approximations, and
uncertainties. Limitations are also a consequence of assumptions underlying a
model that may restrict the scope to a limited set of specific circumstances and
situations.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
|
Question: How can model risk be reduced?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.77855372 | 0.77570350 (-0.00285022) |
| groundedness | 0.86616725 | 0.87994717 (+0.01377992) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.79489355 | 0.79746734 (+0.00257379) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.70693565 | 0.70700626 (+0.00007061) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88799560 | 0.88815671 (+0.00016111) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.92005879 | 0.92005879 |
| rouge_1 | 0.16524217 | 0.15675676 (-0.00848541) |
| rouge_2 | 0.14899713 | 0.13043478 (-0.01856235) |
| rouge_l | 0.16524217 | 0.15135135 (-0.01389081) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How can model risk be reduced? | |
| Expected answer | Model risk can be reduced by establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model risk can be reduced through several key approaches: 1. **Effective Model Validation**: The document states that "Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use" (page 10). Validation provides an assessment of model reliability based on underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. 2. **Robust Model Development and Implementation**: Sound model development, implementation, and use are vital elements of model risk management. This includes disciplined and knowledgeable development processes consistent with the goals of the model user and bank policy (page 5). 3. **Strong Governance Framework**: The document emphasizes that "Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness" (page 16). 4. **Effective Challenge**: A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, defined as "critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes" (page 4). 5. **Supplementary Tools**: The document notes that "Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information" (page 4). 6. **Comprehensive Documentation**: "Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be ineffective" (page 21). Documentation should be detailed enough that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how it operates, its limitations, and key assumptions. 7. **Vendor Model Validation**: For third-party models, "Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and its capabilities, applicability, and limitations" (page 16). 8. **Contingency Planning**: Banks should "have contingency plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported by the vendor" (page 16). These approaches collectively form a comprehensive framework for reducing model risk within financial institutions. | According to the document, model risk can be reduced through several key approaches: 1. **Effective model validation**: The document states that "Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use" (page 10). Validation provides an assessment of model reliability based on underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. 2. **Robust model development, implementation, and use**: The document emphasizes that "robust model development, implementation, and use is important to model risk management" (page 8). 3. **Effective challenge of models**: This is described as a "guiding principle for managing model risk" involving "critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes" (page 4). 4. **Supplementary tools**: The document notes that "even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively" (page 4), including: - Establishing limits on model use - Monitoring model performance - Adjusting or revising models over time - Supplementing model results with other analysis and information - Using informed conservatism in inputs or model design 5. **Comprehensive documentation**: "Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be ineffective" (page 21). Documentation should be detailed enough for unfamiliar parties to understand how models operate, their limitations, and key assumptions. 6. **Strong governance framework**: The document emphasizes the importance of "a strong model risk management framework that fits into the broader risk management of the organization" (page 17), including board and senior management oversight, policies and procedures, and clear roles and responsibilities. 7. **Appropriate use of external resources**: When engaging external resources for validation and other model risk management activities, banks should "specify the activities to be conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work" and have "a contingency plan in case an external resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory" (page 20). The document concludes that these practices should be implemented in a manner "commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and the extent and complexity of its model use" (page 21). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
|
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
|
Question: How often should outcomes analysis be conducted?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.80356255 | 0.80728431 (+0.00372176) |
| groundedness | 0.85694578 | 0.94073757 (+0.08379179) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.87875247 | 0.88958643 (+0.01083396) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.80356255 | 0.80728431 (+0.00372176) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.84588284 | 0.83691126 (-0.00897158) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89414993 | 0.89414993 |
| rouge_1 | 0.27173913 | 0.26737968 (-0.00435945) |
| rouge_2 | 0.26373626 | 0.25945946 (-0.00427680) |
| rouge_l | 0.27173913 | 0.26737968 (-0.00435945) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How often should outcomes analysis be conducted? | |
| Expected answer | Outcomes analysis should be conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line with design objectives and business uses. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, outcomes analysis should be conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line with design objectives and business uses. As stated on page 14 of sr1107a1.pdf: "Outcomes analysis should be conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line with design objectives and business uses." The document also indicates that banks should conduct a periodic review of each model at least annually, but more frequently if warranted. On page 10, it states: "Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient." For models with long forecast horizons, the document recommends supplementing back-testing with evaluation over shorter periods, employing "early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning shortly after model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. | According to the document, outcomes analysis should be conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line with design objectives and business uses. As stated on page 14 of SR Letter 11-7: "Outcomes analysis should be conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line with design objectives and business uses." The document also indicates that for models with long forecast horizons, while they should be back-tested over longer time periods, this testing should be supplemented by evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ "early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning shortly after model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time (page 15). Additionally, the document mentions that ongoing monitoring, which includes outcomes analysis, should "continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved" (page 12). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 14
include expert judgment to check the intuition behind the outcomes and confirm that the
results make sense. When a model itself relies on expert judgment, quantitative outcomes
analysis helps to evaluate the quality of that judgment. Outcomes analysis should be
conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line
with design objectives and business uses.
A variety of quantitative and qualitative testing and analytical techniques can be used in
outcomes analysis. The choice of technique should be based on the model's
methodology, its complexity, data availability, and the magnitude of potential model risk
to the bank. Outcomes analysis should involve a range of tests because any individual test
will have weaknesses. For example, some tests are better at checking a model's ability to
rank-order or segment observations on a relative basis, whereas others are better at
checking absolute forecast accuracy. Tests should be designed for each situation, as not
all will be effective or feasible in every circumstance, and attention should be paid to
choosing the appropriate type of outcomes analysis for a particular model.
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
3. Outcomes Analysis
The third core element of the validation process is outcomes analysis, a comparison of
model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes. The precise nature of the comparison
depends on the objectives of a model, and might include an assessment of the accuracy of
estimates or forecasts, an evaluation of rank-ordering ability, or other appropriate tests. In
all cases, such comparisons help to evaluate model performance, by establishing expected
ranges for those actual outcomes in relation to the intended objectives and assessing the
reasons for observed variation between the two. If outcomes analysis produces evidence
of poor performance, the bank should take action to address those issues. Outcomes
analysis typically relies on statistical tests or other quantitative measures. It can also
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 13
internal and external information sources, including information provided by third-party
vendors, should be performed regularly.
Sensitivity analysis and other checks for robustness and stability should likewise be
repeated periodically. They can be as useful during ongoing monitoring as they are
during model development. If models only work well for certain ranges of input values,
market conditions, or other factors, they should be monitored to identify situations where
these constraints are approached or exceeded.
Ongoing monitoring should include the analysis of overrides with appropriate
documentation. In the use of virtually any model, there will be cases where model output
is ignored, altered, or reversed based on the expert judgment of model users. Such
overrides are an indication that, in some respect, the model is not performing as intended
or has limitations. Banks should evaluate the reasons for overrides and track and analyze
override performance. If the rate of overrides is high, or if the override process
consistently improves model performance, it is often a sign that the underlying model
needs revision or redevelopment.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 14
include expert judgment to check the intuition behind the outcomes and confirm that the
results make sense. When a model itself relies on expert judgment, quantitative outcomes
analysis helps to evaluate the quality of that judgment. Outcomes analysis should be
conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line
with design objectives and business uses.
A variety of quantitative and qualitative testing and analytical techniques can be used in
outcomes analysis. The choice of technique should be based on the model's
methodology, its complexity, data availability, and the magnitude of potential model risk
to the bank. Outcomes analysis should involve a range of tests because any individual test
will have weaknesses. For example, some tests are better at checking a model's ability to
rank-order or segment observations on a relative basis, whereas others are better at
checking absolute forecast accuracy. Tests should be designed for each situation, as not
all will be effective or feasible in every circumstance, and attention should be paid to
choosing the appropriate type of outcomes analysis for a particular model.
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
3. Outcomes Analysis
The third core element of the validation process is outcomes analysis, a comparison of
model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes. The precise nature of the comparison
depends on the objectives of a model, and might include an assessment of the accuracy of
estimates or forecasts, an evaluation of rank-ordering ability, or other appropriate tests. In
all cases, such comparisons help to evaluate model performance, by establishing expected
ranges for those actual outcomes in relation to the intended objectives and assessing the
reasons for observed variation between the two. If outcomes analysis produces evidence
of poor performance, the bank should take action to address those issues. Outcomes
analysis typically relies on statistical tests or other quantitative measures. It can also
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
|
Question: What is the purpose of validation according to the text?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.84637721 | 0.86661307 (+0.02023586) |
| groundedness | 0.93208694 | 0.93208694 |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.90694423 | 0.91368734 (+0.00674311) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.84637721 | 0.86661307 (+0.02023586) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.84320259 | 0.82998575 (-0.01321684) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89774210 | 0.87646079 (-0.02128131) |
| rouge_1 | 0.31441048 | 0.28346457 (-0.03094591) |
| rouge_2 | 0.30837004 | 0.27777778 (-0.03059227) |
| rouge_l | 0.31441048 | 0.28346457 (-0.03094591) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the purpose of validation according to the text? | |
| Expected answer | Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the purpose of model validation is to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound, identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. The text specifically states on page 9: "Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact." Additionally, on page 10, the document explains that "Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it provides information about the source and extent of model risk." Validation also serves to reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error. The document notes that if outcomes fall consistently outside an acceptable range, models should be redeveloped. | According to the document, the purpose of model validation is to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. As stated on page 9 of SR Letter 11-7, "Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact." The document further explains on page 10 that "Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it provides information about the source and extent of model risk." Additionally, validation serves to: - Reveal deterioration in model performance over time - Set thresholds for acceptable levels of error - Identify when models should be redeveloped if outcomes consistently fall outside acceptable ranges - Ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business practices do not create new model limitations The validation process is particularly important during benign economic conditions when risk estimates might become overly optimistic and available data may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. |
| Retrieved Context |
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 20
External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 6
underlying the model should be well documented and generally supported by published
research and sound industry practice. The model methodologies and processing
components that implement the theory, including the mathematical specification and the
numerical techniques and approximations, should be explained in detail with particular
attention to merits and limitations. Developers should ensure that the components work
as intended, are appropriate for the intended business purpose, and are conceptually
sound and mathematically and statistically correct. Comparison with alternative theories
and approaches is a fundamental component of a sound modeling process.
The data and other information used to develop a model are of critical importance; there
should be rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance, and appropriate
documentation. Developers should be able to demonstrate that such data and information
are suitable for the model and that they are consistent with the theory behind the
approach and with the chosen methodology. If data proxies are used, they should be
carefully identified, justified, and documented. If data and information are not
representative of the bank's portfolio or other characteristics, or if assumptions are made
to adjust the data and information, these factors should be properly tracked and analyzed
so that users are aware of potential limitations. This is particularly important for external
data and information (from a vendor or outside party), especially as they relate to new
products, instruments, or activities.
Validation of Vendor and Other Third-Party Products
The widespread use of vendor and other third-party products—including data, parameter
values, and complete models—poses unique challenges for validation and other model
risk management activities because the modeling expertise is external to the user and
because some components are considered proprietary. Vendor products should
nevertheless be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework
following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be
somewhat modified.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Question: How should banks approach back-testing?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.72593318 | 0.77413623 (+0.04820305) |
| groundedness | 0.87908053 | 0.86707091 (-0.01200962) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.79203048 | 0.78660275 (-0.00542773) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.71741049 | 0.71741049 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.83868794 | 0.83676806 (-0.00191988) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.87285488 | 0.87285488 |
| rouge_1 | 0.13832853 | 0.12612613 (-0.01220240) |
| rouge_2 | 0.09275362 | 0.04833837 (-0.04441525) |
| rouge_l | 0.13256484 | 0.10210210 (-0.03046274) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How should banks approach back-testing? | |
| Expected answer | Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of "early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks should approach back-testing as follows: Back-testing is defined as a form of outcomes analysis that "involves the comparison of actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or performance window of the model" (page 14). When implementing back-testing, banks should: 1. Compare outcomes against expected ranges or statistical confidence intervals around model forecasts. 2. Analyze discrepancies when outcomes fall outside those intervals, particularly investigating causes that are significant in magnitude or frequency. 3. Determine whether differences stem from: - Omission of material factors from the model - Errors in model specification (such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity) - Random variations consistent with acceptable model performance 4. Supplement back-testing of models with long forecast horizons with evaluation over shorter periods, including: - "Early warning" metrics designed to measure performance shortly after model introduction - Trend analysis of performance over time 5. Use multiple tests rather than relying on a single measure. For example, with value-at-risk (VaR) models, banks should not only measure "the frequency of losses in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator" but also "use other tests, such as assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against other estimated percentiles" (pages 14-15). 6. Apply appropriate statistical testing, while recognizing the challenges in both "the choice of appropriate tests and the interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and the interpretation of results" (page 15). 7. Conduct "parallel outcomes analysis" when models are adjusted, comparing both original and adjusted models' forecasts against realized outcomes to determine if adjustments improve performance (page 14). The document emphasizes that back-testing "is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces unambiguous results" and that "the purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values" (page 15). | According to the document, banks should approach back-testing as a critical form of outcomes analysis in model validation. Back-testing involves comparing actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model development, at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or performance window of the model. Key aspects of proper back-testing include: 1. Using expected ranges or statistical confidence intervals around model forecasts for comparison with actual outcomes. 2. Analyzing discrepancies when outcomes fall outside those intervals, particularly investigating causes that are significant in magnitude or frequency. 3. Determining whether differences stem from omission of material factors, errors in model specification (such as interaction terms or linearity assumptions), or are purely random and consistent with acceptable model performance. 4. Supplementing back-testing of models with long forecast horizons by evaluating performance over shorter periods, using "early warning" metrics and trend analysis. 5. Employing multiple tests rather than relying on a single measure. For example, with value-at-risk (VaR) models, banks should not only measure the frequency of losses exceeding a single VaR percentile estimator but also use other tests such as "assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against other estimated percentiles." 6. Applying statistical testing, while recognizing the challenges in both choosing appropriate tests and interpreting results. Banks should "support and document both the choice of tests and the interpretation of results." 7. Understanding that back-testing "is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces unambiguous results" and requires careful analysis. 8. Recognizing that in-sample fit analysis and model performance in holdout samples, while important parts of model development, "are not substitutes for back-testing." The document emphasizes that back-testing is an essential component of ongoing model validation that helps ensure models continue to perform as intended over time. |
| Retrieved Context |
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Management should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and
other quantitative testing. If testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable
in some circumstances, management should consider modifying certain model properties,
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 3
III. OVERVIEW OF MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
For the purposes of this document, the term model refers to a quantitative method,
system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, financial, or mathematical theories,
techniques, and assumptions to process input data into quantitative estimates. A model
consists of three components: an information input component, which delivers
assumptions and data to the model; a processing component, which transforms inputs into
estimates; and a reporting component, which translates the estimates into useful business
information. Models meeting this definition might be used for analyzing business
strategies, informing business decisions, identifying and measuring risks, valuing
exposures, instruments or positions, conducting stress testing, assessing adequacy of
capital, managing client assets, measuring compliance with internal limits, maintaining
the formal control apparatus of the bank, or meeting financial or regulatory reporting
requirements and issuing public disclosures. The definition of model also covers
quantitative approaches whose inputs are partially or wholly qualitative or based on
expert judgment, provided that the output is quantitative in nature. [Footnote
3
- While outside the scope of this guidance, more qualitative approaches used by banking organizations—
i.e., those not defined as models according to this guidance—should also be subject to a rigorous control
process.
End
of
Footnote
3.]
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 3
III. OVERVIEW OF MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
For the purposes of this document, the term model refers to a quantitative method,
system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, financial, or mathematical theories,
techniques, and assumptions to process input data into quantitative estimates. A model
consists of three components: an information input component, which delivers
assumptions and data to the model; a processing component, which transforms inputs into
estimates; and a reporting component, which translates the estimates into useful business
information. Models meeting this definition might be used for analyzing business
strategies, informing business decisions, identifying and measuring risks, valuing
exposures, instruments or positions, conducting stress testing, assessing adequacy of
capital, managing client assets, measuring compliance with internal limits, maintaining
the formal control apparatus of the bank, or meeting financial or regulatory reporting
requirements and issuing public disclosures. The definition of model also covers
quantitative approaches whose inputs are partially or wholly qualitative or based on
expert judgment, provided that the output is quantitative in nature. [Footnote
3
- While outside the scope of this guidance, more qualitative approaches used by banking organizations—
i.e., those not defined as models according to this guidance—should also be subject to a rigorous control
process.
End
of
Footnote
3.]
|
Question: Why is independence important in model validation?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.82113006 | 0.82121668 (+0.00008662) |
| groundedness | 0.91331464 | 0.88461387 (-0.02870076) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84683349 | 0.85007827 (+0.00324478) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73425402 | 0.75344019 (+0.01918616) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.86563156 | 0.86316813 (-0.00246343) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.93257173 | 0.93257173 |
| rouge_1 | 0.17532468 | 0.16167665 (-0.01364803) |
| rouge_2 | 0.13071895 | 0.10843373 (-0.02228522) |
| rouge_l | 0.16883117 | 0.14970060 (-0.01913057) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | Why is independence important in model validation? | |
| Expected answer | Independence is important in model validation because it helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation, and that the validation process is objective and unbiased. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, independence is important in model validation for several key reasons: 1. Independence helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. When validation is performed by staff who are not responsible for model development or use, they can provide an objective assessment without bias or conflicts of interest (page 9). 2. Independent validation provides effective challenge to model developers and users. The document states that "model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence" (page 9). 3. Independence supports objectivity and prevents bias in the validation process. While independence may be supported by separation of reporting lines, it should ultimately "be judged by actions and outcomes" (page 9). 4. Independent validators need "explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies" (page 9). This ensures that validation findings receive proper attention. 5. Independent validation helps ensure that model limitations are properly identified and addressed. The document notes that "a model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality" (page 9). 6. Internal audit plays an important role in "ensuring that validation work is conducted properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out" by evaluating "the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation participants" (page 19). The document emphasizes that while some validation work may be done by model developers and users for practical reasons, such work must "be subject to critical review by an independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation" (page 9). | According to the document, independence is important in model validation for several key reasons: 1. Independence helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. When validation is performed by staff who are not responsible for model development or use, they don't have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid (page 9). 2. Independent validation provides objective assessment of model risk and the associated costs and benefits. Since model risk is ultimately borne by the bank as a whole, an objective assessment through sound model validation is necessary (page 8). 3. Independence supports effective challenge of models. The document states that "model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence" (page 9). 4. Independent validators can provide critical, unbiased review. The document mentions that "banks can support appropriate incentives in validation through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review" (page 9). 5. Independence ensures that model developers are not relied upon as the sole source of information about model quality. The document states that "A model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality" (page 9). The document clarifies that independence "is not an end in itself" but rather a means to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. It notes that while independence may be supported by separation of reporting lines, "it should be judged by actions and outcomes" (page 9). In some cases, validation work may be done by model developers and users, but such work should be "subject to critical review by an independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation" (page 9). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Validation of Vendor and Other Third-Party Products
The widespread use of vendor and other third-party products—including data, parameter
values, and complete models—poses unique challenges for validation and other model
risk management activities because the modeling expertise is external to the user and
because some components are considered proprietary. Vendor products should
nevertheless be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework
following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be
somewhat modified.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
Question: How often should model validation be performed?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.84368964 | 0.81797959 (-0.02571005) |
| groundedness | 0.91372818 | 0.87792477 (-0.03580342) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.87081728 | 0.81267525 (-0.05814203) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.84368964 | 0.71813196 (-0.12555767) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.86254293 | 0.85888610 (-0.00365684) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91384739 | 0.91384739 |
| rouge_1 | 0.16528926 | 0.15748031 (-0.00780894) |
| rouge_2 | 0.08333333 | 0.07142857 (-0.01190476) |
| rouge_l | 0.12396694 | 0.13385827 (+0.00989133) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How often should model validation be performed? | |
| Expected answer | Model validation should be performed regularly, with the frequency depending on the risk exposures, business activities, and the extent and complexity of the model use. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model validation should be performed on an ongoing basis with specific frequency requirements. The document states that "Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient" (page 10). Additionally, the document mentions that "Ongoing monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved" (page 12). The guidance also indicates that "It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the full validation process... at some fixed interval, including updated documentation of all activities" (page 10). For specific situations, the document notes: - Material changes to models should be subject to validation - Initial validation should occur before a model goes into use - For vendor models, banks should conduct ongoing performance monitoring - For models with long forecast horizons, back-testing should be supplemented by evaluation over shorter periods The frequency of validation activities should be addressed in bank policies, which should "establish standards for the extent of validation that should be performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation" (page 18). | According to the document, model validation should be performed on an ongoing basis, with specific frequency requirements outlined in several sections: 1. Banks should conduct "a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient" (page 10). 2. Ongoing monitoring should "continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the magnitude of the risk involved" (page 12). 3. "It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the full validation process... at some fixed interval, including updated documentation of all activities" (page 10). 4. For material changes to models, validation should be performed before implementation: "Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation" (page 15). 5. For vendor models, banks should "conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance using the bank's own outcomes" (page 16). The document emphasizes that the prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in bank policies, which should "establish standards for the extent of validation that should be performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation" (page 18). |
| Retrieved Context |
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
|
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
|
Question: How can model risk be managed?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.79672613 | 0.76958469 (-0.02714144) |
| groundedness | 0.84810395 | 0.85855963 (+0.01045568) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83469259 | 0.83949848 (+0.00480589) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.72292091 | 0.76958469 (+0.04666378) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.90768679 | 0.89671901 (-0.01096778) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.95064276 | 0.95064276 |
| rouge_1 | 0.14814815 | 0.17647059 (+0.02832244) |
| rouge_2 | 0.10421836 | 0.03703704 (-0.06718133) |
| rouge_l | 0.12839506 | 0.11764706 (-0.01074800) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How can model risk be managed? | |
| Expected answer | Model risk can be managed by identifying the sources of risk and assessing the magnitude, considering risk from individual models and in the aggregate, and implementing effective challenge of models. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model risk should be managed like other types of risk. The document outlines several key approaches to managing model risk: 1. **Identification and Assessment**: Banks should identify the sources of risk and assess its magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity, higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact. Banks should consider risk from both individual models and in the aggregate. 2. **Effective Challenge**: A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, which involves critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on: - Incentives (separation from model development process) - Competence (technical knowledge and modeling skills) - Influence (authority to ensure actions are taken to address model issues) 3. **Robust Model Development, Implementation, and Use**: Model risk management begins with disciplined and knowledgeable development and implementation processes consistent with the situation and goals of the model user and bank policy. 4. **Sound Model Validation Process**: Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use. It provides an assessment of model reliability based on underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. 5. **Strong Governance Framework**: This includes explicit support and structure through policies, procedures, resource allocation, and evaluation mechanisms. The board of directors and senior management should establish a bank-wide approach to model risk management. 6. **Documentation**: Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be ineffective. Documentation should be detailed enough so parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how it operates, its limitations, and key assumptions. 7. **Supplementary Tools**: Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so other tools should be used, including: - Establishing limits on model use - Monitoring model performance - Adjusting or revising models over time - Supplementing model results with other analysis and information - Applying informed conservatism in inputs or design 8. **Internal Audit**: A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk management framework for individual models and in the aggregate. The document emphasizes that the approach to model risk management should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, business activities, and the extent and complexity of its model use. | According to the document, model risk should be managed like other types of risk through several key approaches: 1. **Effective Challenge**: A guiding principle for managing model risk is "critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and assumptions and produce appropriate changes." This requires: - Separation between model development and challenge processes - Well-designed compensation practices and supportive corporate culture - Technical knowledge and modeling skills - Explicit authority and management support to ensure actions are taken 2. **Robust Model Development, Implementation, and Use**: - Disciplined and knowledgeable development processes - Proper implementation aligned with business goals - Appropriate model selection and application 3. **Sound Model Validation Process**: - Identifying model errors and corrective actions - Assessing reliability based on underlying assumptions and methods - Setting thresholds for acceptable error levels - Monitoring model performance over time 4. **Strong Governance Framework**: - Board and senior management oversight - Clear policies and procedures - Well-defined roles and responsibilities - Comprehensive documentation - Internal audit assessment 5. **Supplementary Risk Management Tools**: - Establishing limits on model use - Monitoring model performance - Adjusting models over time - Supplementing model results with other analysis - Using informed conservatism in inputs or design 6. **Documentation**: - Detailed documentation of model development and validation - Documentation of ongoing monitoring and analysis - Documentation of decision-making processes The document emphasizes that "model risk cannot be eliminated," so these management approaches should be implemented in a manner "commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and the extent and complexity of its model use." |
| Retrieved Context |
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
|
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
|
Question: How can banks account for model uncertainty?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.80337622 | 0.80959630 (+0.00622008) |
| groundedness | 0.86958541 | 0.88545885 (+0.01587344) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.80631568 | 0.80484450 (-0.00147118) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.70747769 | 0.70747769 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88794768 | 0.88700991 (-0.00093777) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91982921 | 0.91982921 |
| rouge_1 | 0.34267913 | 0.35256410 (+0.00988497) |
| rouge_2 | 0.28840125 | 0.29677419 (+0.00837294) |
| rouge_l | 0.32398754 | 0.33333333 (+0.00934579) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How can banks account for model uncertainty? | |
| Expected answer | Banks can account for model uncertainty by explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism, making judgmental conservative adjustments to model output, placing less emphasis on that model's output, or ensuring that the model is only used when supplemented by other models or approaches. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks can account for model uncertainty in several ways: 1. Using a range of outputs rather than a simple point estimate to signal model uncertainty and avoid spurious precision (page 8). 2. Explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism (page 8). 3. Making judgmental conservative adjustments to model output (page 8). 4. Placing less emphasis on a particular model's output (page 8). 5. Ensuring that a model is only used when supplemented by other models or approaches (page 8). 6. Conducting sensitivity analysis to check the impact of small changes in inputs and parameter values on model outputs (page 11). 7. Performing model stress testing to check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme values, to verify model robustness (page 11). 8. Holding an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses associated with model risk, though the document cautions that conservatism can become an impediment to proper model development if seen as a solution that discourages efforts to improve the model (page 8). 9. When validation activities cannot be conducted prior to model use due to data limitations, mitigating uncertainty through other compensating controls (page 10). The document notes that while conservative use of models is generally prudent, banks should be careful in applying conservatism broadly because "the impact of such conservatism in complex models may not be obvious or intuitive" and "model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not be truly conservative compared with alternative methods" (page 8). | According to the document, banks can account for model uncertainty in several ways: 1. Using a range of outputs rather than a simple point estimate to signal model uncertainty and avoid spurious precision (page 8). 2. Explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism (page 8). 3. Making judgmental conservative adjustments to model output (page 8). 4. Placing less emphasis on a particular model's output (page 8). 5. Ensuring that a model is only used when supplemented by other models or approaches (page 8). 6. Employing sensitivity analysis during model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and parameter values on model outputs (page 11). 7. Conducting model stress testing to check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme values, to verify model robustness (page 11). 8. Holding an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses associated with model risk, though the document cautions that excessive conservatism can lead model users to discount the model outputs (page 8). 9. Using reports that provide estimates for different input-value scenarios and assumption values to give decision makers important indications of the model's accuracy, robustness, and stability (pages 7-8). The document notes that while conservative use of models is prudent, banks should be careful in applying conservatism broadly because the impact in complex models may not be obvious or intuitive, and initially conservative assumptions may not remain conservative over time (page 8). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 8
indications of the model's accuracy, robustness, and stability as well as information on
model limitations.
An understanding of model uncertainty and inaccuracy and a demonstration that the bank
is accounting for them appropriately are important outcomes of effective model
development, implementation, and use. Because they are by definition imperfect
representations of reality, all models have some degree of uncertainty and inaccuracy.
These can sometimes be quantified, for example, by an assessment of the potential
impact of factors that are unobservable or not fully incorporated in the model, or by the
confidence interval around a statistical model's point estimate. Indeed, using a range of
outputs, rather than a simple point estimate, can be a useful way to signal model
uncertainty and avoid spurious precision. At other times, only a qualitative assessment of
model uncertainty and inaccuracy is possible. In either case, it can be prudent for banks
to account for model uncertainty by explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to
produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism. Accounting
for model uncertainty can also include judgmental conservative adjustments to model
output, placing less emphasis on that model's output, or ensuring that the model is only
used when supplemented by other models or approaches. [Footnote
5
- To the extent that models are used to generate amounts included in public financial statements, any
adjustments for model uncertainty must comply with generally accepted accounting principles.
End
of
Footnote
5.]
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Management should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and
other quantitative testing. If testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable
in some circumstances, management should consider modifying certain model properties,
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 8
indications of the model's accuracy, robustness, and stability as well as information on
model limitations.
An understanding of model uncertainty and inaccuracy and a demonstration that the bank
is accounting for them appropriately are important outcomes of effective model
development, implementation, and use. Because they are by definition imperfect
representations of reality, all models have some degree of uncertainty and inaccuracy.
These can sometimes be quantified, for example, by an assessment of the potential
impact of factors that are unobservable or not fully incorporated in the model, or by the
confidence interval around a statistical model's point estimate. Indeed, using a range of
outputs, rather than a simple point estimate, can be a useful way to signal model
uncertainty and avoid spurious precision. At other times, only a qualitative assessment of
model uncertainty and inaccuracy is possible. In either case, it can be prudent for banks
to account for model uncertainty by explicitly adjusting model inputs or calculations to
produce more severe or adverse model output in the interest of conservatism. Accounting
for model uncertainty can also include judgmental conservative adjustments to model
output, placing less emphasis on that model's output, or ensuring that the model is only
used when supplemented by other models or approaches. [Footnote
5
- To the extent that models are used to generate amounts included in public financial statements, any
adjustments for model uncertainty must comply with generally accepted accounting principles.
End
of
Footnote
5.]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
Question: How should banks choose the models they use?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.83706854 | 0.84275799 (+0.00568945) |
| groundedness | 0.89577032 | 0.86178679 (-0.03398353) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83618105 | 0.84179752 (+0.00561647) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73253803 | 0.73976847 (+0.00723044) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87131297 | 0.87030388 (-0.00100909) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89585587 | 0.89585587 |
| rouge_1 | 0.14367816 | 0.15151515 (+0.00783699) |
| rouge_2 | 0.12716763 | 0.12804878 (+0.00088115) |
| rouge_l | 0.13218391 | 0.13939394 (+0.00721003) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How should banks choose the models they use? | |
| Expected answer | Banks should choose models that are appropriate for their size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended use. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks should follow several key principles when choosing models: 1. Banks should ensure there are "appropriate processes in place for selecting vendor models" (page 16). This includes requiring vendors to provide developmental evidence explaining product components, design, and intended use to determine whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. 2. Models should be "tailored for specific applications and informed by business uses" (page 5). Banks should "choose the particular models and variables that are appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended use" (page 5). 3. When selecting vendor models, banks should require vendors to "provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected" and "clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the product's use may be problematic" (page 16). 4. Banks should "obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation" (page 16). 5. The document emphasizes that "model risk increases with greater model complexity, higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact" (page 4), suggesting banks should consider these risk factors when selecting models. 6. Banks should consider whether models can be properly validated before implementation, as "if significant deficiencies are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or should be permitted only under very tight constraints" (page 10). 7. The document notes that "materiality is an important consideration in model risk management" (page 5), suggesting that the selection process should be more rigorous for models that will have a material impact on business decisions. 8. Banks should maintain a "comprehensive set of information for models implemented for use" in a model inventory (page 20), which helps in evaluating model risk and making informed selection decisions. | According to the document, banks should follow several key principles when choosing models: 1. Banks should ensure there are "appropriate processes in place for selecting vendor models" (page 16). This includes requiring vendors to provide developmental evidence explaining product components, design, and intended use to determine whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. 2. Banks should "choose the particular models and variables that are appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended use" (page 5). Even smaller banks that rely on vendor models must ensure this appropriateness. 3. When selecting vendor models, banks should require vendors to "provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected" and "clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the product's use may be problematic" (page 16). 4. For third-party models, banks should "obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation" (page 16). 5. The document states that "line of business or other decision makers should document information leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation" (page 21), indicating that model selection decisions should be documented. 6. Banks should consider model risk when selecting models, as "model risk increases with greater model complexity, higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact" (page 4). 7. The selection process should consider whether the model's "underlying data and information are suitable for the model and that they are consistent with the theory behind the approach and with the chosen methodology" (page 6). The guidance emphasizes that model selection should be part of a comprehensive model risk management framework that includes validation, ongoing monitoring, and governance. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 16
As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Management should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and
other quantitative testing. If testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable
in some circumstances, management should consider modifying certain model properties,
[Page
Break]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 16
As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Question: What should be included in a bank's model inventory?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.75843551 | 0.75843551 |
| groundedness | 0.82573366 | 0.82573366 |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.86252224 | 0.86306124 (+0.00053900) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.75843551 | 0.75843551 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.84146843 | 0.84269348 (+0.00122505) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.88674872 | 0.88674872 |
| rouge_1 | 0.48844884 | 0.47133758 (-0.01711127) |
| rouge_2 | 0.32558140 | 0.31410256 (-0.01147883) |
| rouge_l | 0.42244224 | 0.40764331 (-0.01479893) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What should be included in a bank's model inventory? | |
| Expected answer | A bank's model inventory should include a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It should also list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying components, model outputs and their intended use, and indicate whether models are functioning properly. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, a bank's model inventory should include comprehensive information about models that are implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While the level of detail may vary based on model complexity and the bank's overall model usage, the inventory should include the following elements: 1. Description of the purpose and products for which the model is designed 2. Actual or expected usage of the model 3. Any restrictions on model use 4. The type and source of inputs used by the model 5. Underlying components (which may include other models) 6. Model outputs and their intended use 7. Indication of whether models are functioning properly 8. Description of when models were last updated 9. List of any exceptions to policy 10. Names of individuals responsible for various aspects of model development and validation 11. Dates of completed and planned validation activities 12. Time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid The document also notes that any variation of a model that warrants a separate validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other variations. While each line of business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should be charged with maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models to help the bank evaluate its model risk in the aggregate. | According to the document, a bank's model inventory should include comprehensive information about all models that are implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While the inventory may contain varying levels of information based on model complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the document provides several guidelines for what should be included: 1. Description of the purpose and products for which the model is designed 2. Actual or expected usage of the model 3. Any restrictions on model use 4. The type and source of inputs used by the model 5. Underlying components (which may include other models) 6. Model outputs and their intended use 7. Indication of whether models are functioning properly 8. Description of when models were last updated 9. List of any exceptions to policy 10. Names of individuals responsible for various aspects of model development and validation 11. Dates of completed and planned validation activities 12. The time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid The document also notes that any variation of a model that warrants a separate validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other variations. Additionally, while each line of business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should be charged with maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models to assist the bank in evaluating its model risk in the aggregate. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
|
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What is the role of validation in model risk management?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.85149118 | 0.80012394 (-0.05136724) |
| groundedness | 0.86236066 | 0.83537745 (-0.02698321) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.86122077 | 0.86550319 (+0.00428241) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.74697367 | 0.74697367 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.89228547 | 0.89715334 (+0.00486787) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.94340187 | 0.94340187 |
| rouge_1 | 0.13267813 | 0.10940919 (-0.02326894) |
| rouge_2 | 0.03950617 | 0.03076923 (-0.00873694) |
| rouge_l | 0.09828010 | 0.08315098 (-0.01512911) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the role of validation in model risk management? | |
| Expected answer | Validation is an essential aspect of model risk management. Policies should emphasize testing and analysis, and promote the development of targets for model accuracy, standards for acceptable levels of discrepancies, and procedures for review of and response to unacceptable discrepancies. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the documents, validation plays a critical role in model risk management. Model validation is defined as "the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses" (page 9). Effective validation serves several key purposes: 1. It helps ensure that models are sound and identifies potential limitations and assumptions, assessing their possible impact (page 9). 2. It reduces model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use (page 10). 3. It provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods, thereby providing information about the source and extent of model risk (page 10). 4. It can reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error (page 10). The documents emphasize that validation should involve a degree of independence from model development and use, generally being conducted by people who are not responsible for development or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid (page 9). However, the quality of the process is ultimately judged by the manner in which models are subject to critical review. All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to validation, and this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased from vendors or consultants (page 9). The rigor and sophistication of validation should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations. If significant deficiencies are noted during validation, use of the model should not be allowed or should be permitted only under tight constraints until those issues are resolved (page 10). In cases where validation cannot be conducted prior to model use due to data limitations, this should be documented and communicated, with uncertainty mitigated by other compensating controls. The documents also note that while model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and use, "a sound model validation process" is described as an "essential element" of the overall model risk management framework (page 5). | According to the documents, validation plays a critical role in model risk management. Here's a structured overview of its role: ### Definition and Purpose - Validation is defined as "the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses" (page 9). - Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound, identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact (page 9). - While validation is a critical component, model risk management also encompasses sound development, implementation, use, and governance (page 2). ### Key Functions of Validation 1. **Risk Reduction**: Validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use (page 10). 2. **Reliability Assessment**: It provides an assessment of model reliability based on underlying assumptions, theory, and methods (page 10). 3. **Performance Monitoring**: Validation reveals deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error (page 10). 4. **Effective Challenge**: Validation provides independent challenge to model development and use (pages 9-10). ### Validation Requirements - All model components (input, processing, and reporting) should be subject to validation (page 9). - This applies equally to in-house models and those purchased from vendors (page 9). - The rigor and sophistication of validation should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, their complexity and materiality, and the size and complexity of operations (page 9). - Validation should involve a degree of independence from model development and use (page 9). ### Timing and Frequency - Initial validation should occur before a model is used (page 10). - Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use (page 10). - Banks should conduct periodic reviews—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model (page 10). - Material changes to models should also be subject to validation (page 10). ### Governance of Validation - Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings (page 9). - Validation staff should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise (page 9). - Internal audit should verify that validation work is conducted properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out (page 19). - Validation reports should articulate model aspects reviewed, highlight potential deficiencies, and determine whether adjustments or compensating controls are warranted (page 21). In conclusion, validation is not just a technical exercise but a fundamental component of effective model risk management that provides objective assessment, identifies limitations, and ensures models remain fit for purpose throughout their lifecycle. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 20
External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Question: What is model risk according to the text?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.84053709 | 0.84535751 (+0.00482042) |
| groundedness | 0.88441455 | 0.87064820 (-0.01376636) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.87602398 | 0.87830301 (+0.00227903) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73146210 | 0.73146210 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87659132 | 0.88399974 (+0.00740842) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.92534699 | 0.92534699 |
| rouge_1 | 0.15384615 | 0.16309013 (+0.00924397) |
| rouge_2 | 0.13877551 | 0.14718615 (+0.00841064) |
| rouge_l | 0.15384615 | 0.16309013 (+0.00924397) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is model risk according to the text? | |
| Expected answer | Model risk is the potential for adverse consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model risk is defined as "the potential for adverse consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports" (page 3). The text explains that model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons: 1. The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. These errors can occur at any point from design through implementation, including during mathematical calculations, application of theory, sample design, selection of inputs, and implementation in information systems. Additionally, shortcuts or simplifications used to manage complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs. 2. The model may be used incorrectly or inappropriately. Even a fundamentally sound model producing accurate outputs can exhibit high model risk if it is misapplied or misused. Models are simplifications of reality, and real-world events may prove those simplifications inappropriate, especially if a model is used outside the environment for which it was designed. The document emphasizes that model risk should be managed like other types of risk, with banks identifying the sources of risk and assessing its magnitude. It notes that model risk increases with greater model complexity, higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact. | According to the document, model risk is defined as "the potential for adverse consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports" (page 3). The text explains that model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons: 1. The model may have fundamental errors and produce inaccurate outputs when viewed against its design objective and intended business uses. These errors can occur at any point from design through implementation, including during mathematical calculations, sample design, selection of inputs, estimation, and implementation in information systems. 2. The model may be used incorrectly or inappropriately. Even a fundamentally sound model producing accurate outputs can exhibit high model risk if it is misapplied or misused. Since models are simplifications of reality, they may be inappropriate for real-world events, especially if used outside the environment for which they were designed. The document emphasizes that model risk should be managed like other types of risk, with banks identifying the sources of risk and assessing its magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity, higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact. Banks should consider risk from both individual models and in the aggregate. |
| Retrieved Context |
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
|
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What are some challenges associated with model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.79218805 | 0.79570134 (+0.00351329) |
| groundedness | 0.84836125 | 0.85397559 (+0.00561434) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.80299130 | 0.80452356 (+0.00153226) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.71062112 | 0.71062112 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.86541135 | 0.86585397 (+0.00044262) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.90863097 | 0.90863097 |
| rouge_1 | 0.12885154 | 0.14147910 (+0.01262756) |
| rouge_2 | 0.01690141 | 0.04530744 (+0.02840603) |
| rouge_l | 0.08403361 | 0.07073955 (-0.01329406) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are some challenges associated with model development? | |
| Expected answer | Model development faces several challenges, including the need to ensure that data and information are representative, the need to make assumptions, and the potential for models to become unreliable or inaccurate over time. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, there are several challenges associated with model development: 1. **Inherent Complexity**: Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships, and simplification is inevitable due to the complexity of those relationships. This means models are never perfect and have limitations (page 3). 2. **Potential for Fundamental Errors**: Models may contain errors at any point from design through implementation. Mathematical calculations, choice of sample design, selection of inputs, and implementation in information systems can all introduce errors (page 3). 3. **Data Quality and Relevance**: The data used to develop models is critically important. Developers must rigorously assess data quality and relevance, and ensure data is suitable for the model and consistent with the theory and methodology (page 6). 4. **Multidisciplinary Nature**: Model development draws on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields, making it a complex multidisciplinary activity (page 5). 5. **Subjective Judgment**: A considerable amount of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development, which introduces additional risk (page 5). 6. **Testing Challenges**: Testing must be applied under a variety of market conditions, including scenarios outside the range of ordinary expectations, and must encompass various products or applications for which the model is intended (page 6). 7. **Documentation Requirements**: Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers who know the models well may not appreciate its value, making comprehensive documentation challenging to achieve (page 21). 8. **Integration with Information Systems**: Models are typically embedded in larger information systems, requiring proper coordination of model calculations with the capabilities and requirements of these systems (page 7). 9. **Vendor and Third-Party Products**: The use of vendor and third-party products poses unique challenges because modeling expertise is external to the user and some components are considered proprietary (page 15). 10. **Balancing Conservatism**: While conservative use of models is prudent, banks should be careful in applying conservatism broadly as the impact in complex models may not be obvious or intuitive (page 8). | According to the document, there are several challenges associated with model development: 1. Model development is not a straightforward or routine technical process. It relies heavily on the experience and judgment of developers, which greatly influences the appropriate selection of inputs and processing components (page 5). 2. Modeling is often a multidisciplinary activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields, requiring diverse expertise (page 5). 3. A considerable amount of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development, which elevates the importance of sound risk management processes (page 5). 4. Models can have fundamental errors that produce inaccurate outputs when viewed against design objectives and intended business uses. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation (page 3). 5. Shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs (page 3). 6. Testing is an integral part of model development and presents challenges in determining appropriate statistical tests, which depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model (page 6). 7. No single test is usually sufficient, so banks must apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model (page 6). 8. Qualitative and judgmental aspects of models need to be developed soundly, with any adjustments conducted in an appropriate and systematic manner and well documented (page 7). 9. Models must be properly coordinated with the capabilities and requirements of information systems, requiring substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity (page 7). 10. Conservatism in model development must be applied carefully, as model aspects that appear conservative may not be truly conservative compared with alternative methods (page 8). |
| Retrieved Context |
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What are the three roles in model risk management?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.74926822 | 0.75526135 (+0.00599313) |
| groundedness | 0.86920309 | 0.89704037 (+0.02783728) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84475071 | 0.85331926 (+0.00856856) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.74926822 | 0.75526135 (+0.00599313) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.89122661 | 0.90206510 (+0.01083849) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.94118249 | 0.94118249 |
| rouge_1 | 0.11483254 | 0.10909091 (-0.00574163) |
| rouge_2 | 0.06763285 | 0.06422018 (-0.00341267) |
| rouge_l | 0.10526316 | 0.10000000 (-0.00526316) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are the three roles in model risk management? | |
| Expected answer | The three roles in model risk management are ownership, controls, and compliance. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the roles in model risk management can be conceptually divided into three categories: 1. Ownership - This role involves ultimate accountability for model use and performance. As stated on page 18, "The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and used." 2. Controls - This role involves risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. The document notes on page 18 that "The responsibilities for risk controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective challenge takes place." 3. Compliance - While not explicitly detailed in the same section, compliance is mentioned as the third conceptual role. On page 18, the document states, "Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership, controls, and compliance." The document emphasizes that regardless of how banks assign these responsibilities, "it is important that reporting lines and incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed." | According to the document, the roles in model risk management can be conceptually divided into three categories: 1. Ownership - This role involves accountability for model use and performance. As stated on page 18, "The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and used." 2. Controls - This role involves risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. The document notes on page 18 that "The responsibilities for risk controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective challenge takes place." 3. Compliance - While not explicitly detailed like the other two roles, compliance is mentioned as the third conceptual role on page 18: "Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership, controls, and compliance." The compliance role appears to involve ensuring adherence to policies and procedures established for model risk management. The document emphasizes that "it is important that reporting lines and incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed" when assigning these responsibilities. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 17
Board of Directors and Senior Management
Model risk governance is provided at the highest level by the board of directors and
senior management when they establish a bank-wide approach to model risk
management. As part of their overall responsibilities, a bank's board and senior
management should establish a strong model risk management framework that fits into
the broader risk management of the organization. That framework should be grounded in
an understanding of model risk—not just for individual models but also in the aggregate.
The framework should include standards for model development, implementation, use,
and validation.
While the board is ultimately responsible, it generally delegates to senior management
the responsibility for executing and maintaining an effective model risk management
framework. Duties of senior management include establishing adequate policies and
procedures and ensuring compliance, assigning competent staff, overseeing model
development and implementation, evaluating model results, ensuring effective challenge,
reviewing validation and internal audit findings, and taking prompt remedial action when
necessary. In the same manner as for other major areas of risk, senior management,
directly and through relevant committees, is responsible for regularly reporting to the
board on significant model risk, from individual models and in the aggregate, and on
compliance with policy. Board members should ensure that the level of model risk is
within their tolerance and direct changes where appropriate. These actions will set the
tone for the whole organization about the importance of model risk and the need for
active model risk management.
|
Question: How should models be integrated with larger information systems?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.82215446 | 0.84499621 (+0.02284175) |
| groundedness | 0.90170455 | 0.89756333 (-0.00414122) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84620040 | 0.84379080 (-0.00240960) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.75638372 | 0.75638372 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.85026702 | 0.85283825 (+0.00257124) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.90521666 | 0.90521666 |
| rouge_1 | 0.24043716 | 0.26589595 (+0.02545880) |
| rouge_2 | 0.21978022 | 0.23837209 (+0.01859187) |
| rouge_l | 0.19125683 | 0.26011561 (+0.06885878) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How should models be integrated with larger information systems? | |
| Expected answer | Models should be properly coordinated with the capabilities and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity, together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective systems integration, and appropriate use. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, models are typically embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of model outcomes. Sound model risk management requires substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity, along with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective systems integration, and appropriate use (page 7). The document emphasizes several key aspects of model integration with information systems: 1. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities and requirements of information systems (page 7). 2. System integration deserves special attention because the model processing component often draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into multiple data repositories and reporting systems (page 12). 3. Process verification is essential to check that all model components are functioning as designed, including verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete, consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available (page 12). 4. Computer code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited (page 12). 5. As the content or composition of information changes over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use (page 12). 6. Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate indicators of model performance and limitations (page 12). The document also notes that user-developed applications, such as spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are particularly prone to model risk and require special attention in the integration process (page 12). | According to the document, models are typically embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of model outcomes. The document provides several key points about how models should be integrated with larger information systems: 1. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities and requirements of information systems. 2. Sound model risk management depends on substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity. 3. Controls and testing are necessary to ensure proper implementation of models, effective systems integration, and appropriate use. 4. System integration deserves special attention because the model processing component often draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into multiple data repositories and reporting systems. 5. As the content or composition of information changes over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use. 6. Process verification should check that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete, consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. 7. Computer code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. 8. Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate indicators of model performance and limitations. The document specifically notes that user-developed applications, such as spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are particularly prone to model risk and should receive appropriate attention in the integration process. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
Benchmarking is the comparison of a given model's inputs and outputs to estimates from
alternative internal or external data or models. It can be incorporated in model
development as well as in ongoing monitoring. For credit risk models, examples of
benchmarks include models from vendor firms or industry consortia and data from retail
credit bureaus. Pricing models for securities and derivatives often can be compared with
alternative models that are more accurate or comprehensive but also too time consuming
to run on a daily basis. Whatever the source, benchmark models should be rigorous and
benchmark data should be accurate and complete to ensure a reasonable comparison.
Discrepancies between the model output and benchmarks should trigger investigation
into the sources and degree of the differences, and examination of whether they are
within an expected or appropriate range given the nature of the comparison. The results
of that analysis may suggest revisions to the model. However, differences do not
necessarily indicate that the model is in error. The benchmark itself is an alternative
prediction, and the differences may be due to the different data or methods used. If the
model and the benchmark match well, that is evidence in favor of the model, but it should
be interpreted with caution so the bank does not get a false degree of comfort.
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: How can banks support appropriate incentives in validation?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.74719512 | 0.76868944 (+0.02149432) |
| groundedness | 0.86721691 | 0.86121405 (-0.00600286) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.79038246 | 0.78329033 (-0.00709213) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.68566585 | 0.68566585 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.86560175 | 0.85782424 (-0.00777752) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91373178 | 0.91373178 |
| rouge_1 | 0.20129870 | 0.23220974 (+0.03091104) |
| rouge_2 | 0.19607843 | 0.21886792 (+0.02278949) |
| rouge_l | 0.20129870 | 0.23220974 (+0.03091104) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How can banks support appropriate incentives in validation? | |
| Expected answer | Banks can support appropriate incentives in validation through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation through several key approaches: 1. Compensation practices: The document states that "banks can support appropriate incentives in validation through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review" (page 9). 2. Corporate culture: The document mentions that "corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and encourages questioning and challenging of decisions" (page 9). 3. Independence: The document emphasizes that "validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use" and that "generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid" (page 9). This independence helps "ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation." 4. Organizational structure: The document notes that "independence may be supported by separation of reporting lines" (page 9) and that influence can be "reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or designated responsibilities" (page 10). 5. Explicit authority: Staff conducting validation work should have "explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies" (page 9). 6. Stature and influence: The document states that "the individual or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely and substantive manner" (pages 9-10). These elements collectively create an environment where model validation can be performed objectively and effectively, with appropriate incentives for thorough and critical review. | According to the document, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation through several methods: 1. Compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review (page 9). 2. Establishing a corporate culture that supports objective thinking and encourages questioning and challenging of decisions (page 9). 3. Ensuring appropriate separation of validation from model development and use, with validation performed by staff who are not responsible for development or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid (page 9). 4. Providing explicit authority to validation staff to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies (page 9). 5. Ensuring that the individual or unit to whom validation staff report has "sufficient influence or stature within the bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely and substantive manner" (pages 9-10). 6. Demonstrating influence through reporting lines, title, rank, or designated responsibilities, and through "a pattern of actual instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a result of validation" (page 10). The document emphasizes that while independence in validation is important, it should be "judged by actions and outcomes" rather than just by separation of reporting lines, as there may be additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. |
| Retrieved Context |
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Management should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and
other quantitative testing. If testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable
in some circumstances, management should consider modifying certain model properties,
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
|
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
Validation of Vendor and Other Third-Party Products
The widespread use of vendor and other third-party products—including data, parameter
values, and complete models—poses unique challenges for validation and other model
risk management activities because the modeling expertise is external to the user and
because some components are considered proprietary. Vendor products should
nevertheless be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework
following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be
somewhat modified.
[Page
Break]
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Question: What is the purpose of model risk management?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.76923115 | 0.76109293 (-0.00813822) |
| groundedness | 0.88061559 | 0.86806548 (-0.01255012) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.85804955 | 0.85381766 (-0.00423189) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.76923115 | 0.76109293 (-0.00813822) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88305410 | 0.90596284 (+0.02290874) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.92571038 | 0.92622954 (+0.00051915) |
| rouge_1 | 0.20000000 | 0.17164179 (-0.02835821) |
| rouge_2 | 0.10526316 | 0.08270677 (-0.02255639) |
| rouge_l | 0.15652174 | 0.12686567 (-0.02965607) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the purpose of model risk management? | |
| Expected answer | The purpose of model risk management is to ensure that models used in banking activities are reliable, accurate, and effective in supporting risk management and decision-making processes. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the purpose of model risk management is to address and mitigate the potential for adverse consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports. The document states that "model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or damage to a bank's reputation" (page 3). Model risk management aims to ensure that: 1. Models are properly developed, implemented, and used 2. Models undergo rigorous validation processes 3. Appropriate governance, policies, and controls are in place The guidance emphasizes that effective model risk management includes: - Robust model development and implementation processes - Sound model validation frameworks - Strong governance with defined roles and responsibilities - Clear communication of model limitations and assumptions - Authority to restrict model usage when necessary The document notes that "model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities" (page 5). The ultimate goal is to help banks understand and manage the risks associated with their models, ensuring that model risk is within the tolerance level set by the board of directors and senior management. | According to the document, the purpose of model risk management is to address and mitigate the potential for adverse consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports. The document states that "model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or damage to a bank's reputation" (page 3). Model risk management aims to: 1. Identify and assess the magnitude of risk from individual models and in the aggregate 2. Manage model risk like other types of risk through effective governance frameworks 3. Ensure "effective challenge" of models through critical analysis by objective, informed parties 4. Establish disciplined processes for model development, implementation, and use 5. Implement sound model validation processes to objectively assess model risk 6. Create strong governance structures with clear roles and responsibilities 7. Maintain comprehensive documentation of all aspects of the model risk management framework The document emphasizes that effective model risk management requires a comprehensive approach that includes "robust model development, implementation, and use... a sound model validation process... [and] governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to restrict model usage" (page 5). The guidance also notes that the extent and sophistication of a bank's model risk management framework should be commensurate with the bank's risk exposures, business activities, and the complexity and extent of its model use. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 3
III. OVERVIEW OF MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
For the purposes of this document, the term model refers to a quantitative method,
system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, financial, or mathematical theories,
techniques, and assumptions to process input data into quantitative estimates. A model
consists of three components: an information input component, which delivers
assumptions and data to the model; a processing component, which transforms inputs into
estimates; and a reporting component, which translates the estimates into useful business
information. Models meeting this definition might be used for analyzing business
strategies, informing business decisions, identifying and measuring risks, valuing
exposures, instruments or positions, conducting stress testing, assessing adequacy of
capital, managing client assets, measuring compliance with internal limits, maintaining
the formal control apparatus of the bank, or meeting financial or regulatory reporting
requirements and issuing public disclosures. The definition of model also covers
quantitative approaches whose inputs are partially or wholly qualitative or based on
expert judgment, provided that the output is quantitative in nature. [Footnote
3
- While outside the scope of this guidance, more qualitative approaches used by banking organizations—
i.e., those not defined as models according to this guidance—should also be subject to a rigorous control
process.
End
of
Footnote
3.]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 20
External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 20
External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What is the role of model users in model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.86058839 | 0.79235131 (-0.06823708) |
| groundedness | 0.89892557 | 0.83396008 (-0.06496549) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.90037735 | 0.84856054 (-0.05181681) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.75727441 | 0.74757245 (-0.00970196) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.86664161 | 0.87144396 (+0.00480235) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.92548471 | 0.92548471 |
| rouge_1 | 0.35000000 | 0.32276657 (-0.02723343) |
| rouge_2 | 0.27672956 | 0.25507246 (-0.02165710) |
| rouge_l | 0.29375000 | 0.27665706 (-0.01709294) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the role of model users in model development? | |
| Expected answer | Model users can provide valuable business insight during the development process. They can question the methods or assumptions underlying the models, particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model users play several important roles in model development: 1. Model users can provide valuable business insight during the development process (page 7). Their practical knowledge of business operations can help ensure models reflect economic and business realities. 2. Business managers affected by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying models, particularly if they disagree with the outcomes. This questioning can be "healthy if it is constructive and causes model developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models" (page 7). 3. Model use provides an opportunity to test whether a model is functioning effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and applications change. It serves as "a source of productive feedback and insights from a knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function well" (page 7). However, the document also notes limitations to user challenges: - They may be weak if the model doesn't materially affect users' results - Users might resist changes perceived to have adverse effects on their business line - User challenges tend not to be comprehensive, focusing only on aspects directly impacting their performance or compensation - Challenges tend to be asymmetric, as users are less likely to challenge outcomes advantageous to them - Users might incorrectly believe model risk is low when outcomes appear favorable The document recommends that "the nature and motivation behind model users' input should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model" (page 7). | According to the document, model users play several important roles in model development: 1. Model users can provide valuable business insight during the development process (page 7). Their practical knowledge of business operations can help ensure models reflect economic and business realities. 2. Users can question the methods or assumptions underlying models, particularly if they disagree with outcomes that significantly affect them. The document notes that "such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models" (page 7). 3. Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications change (page 7). 4. Users can provide feedback that serves as "a source of productive feedback and insights from a knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function well" (page 7). However, the document also cautions about limitations of user input: 1. Challenge from model users may be weak if the model doesn't materially affect their results, if changes are perceived to have adverse effects on their business line, or if change is regarded as expensive or difficult (page 7). 2. User challenges tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of models that most directly impact their measured business performance or compensation (page 7). 3. User challenges tend to be asymmetric, as users are less likely to challenge outcomes that advantage them (page 7). The document emphasizes that "the nature and motivation behind model users' input should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model" (page 7). |
| Retrieved Context |
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
|
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What is the role of management in model validation?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.81508124 | 0.81508124 |
| groundedness | 0.86970296 | 0.87541648 (+0.00571352) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.81547345 | 0.82215868 (+0.00668522) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.72618622 | 0.72618622 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88594156 | 0.88765132 (+0.00170976) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.92257675 | 0.92257675 |
| rouge_1 | 0.24528302 | 0.25000000 (+0.00471698) |
| rouge_2 | 0.06329114 | 0.09677419 (+0.03348305) |
| rouge_l | 0.16981132 | 0.15384615 (-0.01596517) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the role of management in model validation? | |
| Expected answer | Management plays a critical role in model validation as they are responsible for ensuring that the validation process is thorough and effective. They should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and other quantitative testing, and they should ensure that appropriate actions are taken if testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, senior management plays several important roles in model validation and the broader model risk management framework: 1. Senior management is responsible for "executing and maintaining an effective model risk management framework" that has been established by the board of directors (page 17). 2. Their specific duties include: - "Establishing adequate policies and procedures and ensuring compliance" - "Assigning competent staff" - "Overseeing model development and implementation" - "Evaluating model results" - "Ensuring effective challenge" - "Reviewing validation and internal audit findings" - "Taking prompt remedial action when necessary" (page 17) 3. Senior management is responsible for "regularly reporting to the board on significant model risk, from individual models and in the aggregate, and on compliance with policy" (page 17). 4. Management should ensure that validation staff have "explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies" (page 9). 5. Management should ensure that validation is performed by staff with "appropriate incentives, competence, and influence" (page 9). 6. When significant deficiencies are found during validation, management should ensure that "use of the model should not be allowed or should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved" (page 10). 7. Management should be "fully informed" of model limitations when using models for decision making, especially when validation tools like back-testing or sensitivity analysis cannot be fully utilized (page 15). The document emphasizes that senior management's actions "will set the tone for the whole organization about the importance of model risk and the need for active model risk management" (page 17). | According to the document, senior management plays a crucial role in model validation and the broader model risk management framework. The document outlines several key responsibilities of senior management in relation to model validation: 1. Senior management is delegated by the board to execute and maintain an effective model risk management framework, which includes model validation as a critical component (page 17). 2. Their specific duties include "establishing adequate policies and procedures and ensuring compliance, assigning competent staff, overseeing model development and implementation, evaluating model results, ensuring effective challenge, reviewing validation and internal audit findings, and taking prompt remedial action when necessary" (page 17). 3. Senior management is responsible for "regularly reporting to the board on significant model risk, from individual models and in the aggregate, and on compliance with policy" (page 17). 4. They set the tone for the organization regarding "the importance of model risk and the need for active model risk management" (page 17). 5. Senior management should ensure that validation staff have "explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies" (page 9). 6. When validation identifies significant errors or inaccuracies, senior management should be informed of model limitations, particularly "when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making" (page 15). The document emphasizes that effective model validation requires appropriate governance and oversight from senior management to ensure independence, objectivity, and effective challenge in the validation process. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Validation of Vendor and Other Third-Party Products
The widespread use of vendor and other third-party products—including data, parameter
values, and complete models—poses unique challenges for validation and other model
risk management activities because the modeling expertise is external to the user and
because some components are considered proprietary. Vendor products should
nevertheless be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework
following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be
somewhat modified.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 17
Board of Directors and Senior Management
Model risk governance is provided at the highest level by the board of directors and
senior management when they establish a bank-wide approach to model risk
management. As part of their overall responsibilities, a bank's board and senior
management should establish a strong model risk management framework that fits into
the broader risk management of the organization. That framework should be grounded in
an understanding of model risk—not just for individual models but also in the aggregate.
The framework should include standards for model development, implementation, use,
and validation.
While the board is ultimately responsible, it generally delegates to senior management
the responsibility for executing and maintaining an effective model risk management
framework. Duties of senior management include establishing adequate policies and
procedures and ensuring compliance, assigning competent staff, overseeing model
development and implementation, evaluating model results, ensuring effective challenge,
reviewing validation and internal audit findings, and taking prompt remedial action when
necessary. In the same manner as for other major areas of risk, senior management,
directly and through relevant committees, is responsible for regularly reporting to the
board on significant model risk, from individual models and in the aggregate, and on
compliance with policy. Board members should ensure that the level of model risk is
within their tolerance and direct changes where appropriate. These actions will set the
tone for the whole organization about the importance of model risk and the need for
active model risk management.
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 3
III. OVERVIEW OF MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
For the purposes of this document, the term model refers to a quantitative method,
system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, financial, or mathematical theories,
techniques, and assumptions to process input data into quantitative estimates. A model
consists of three components: an information input component, which delivers
assumptions and data to the model; a processing component, which transforms inputs into
estimates; and a reporting component, which translates the estimates into useful business
information. Models meeting this definition might be used for analyzing business
strategies, informing business decisions, identifying and measuring risks, valuing
exposures, instruments or positions, conducting stress testing, assessing adequacy of
capital, managing client assets, measuring compliance with internal limits, maintaining
the formal control apparatus of the bank, or meeting financial or regulatory reporting
requirements and issuing public disclosures. The definition of model also covers
quantitative approaches whose inputs are partially or wholly qualitative or based on
expert judgment, provided that the output is quantitative in nature. [Footnote
3
- While outside the scope of this guidance, more qualitative approaches used by banking organizations—
i.e., those not defined as models according to this guidance—should also be subject to a rigorous control
process.
End
of
Footnote
3.]
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 17
Board of Directors and Senior Management
Model risk governance is provided at the highest level by the board of directors and
senior management when they establish a bank-wide approach to model risk
management. As part of their overall responsibilities, a bank's board and senior
management should establish a strong model risk management framework that fits into
the broader risk management of the organization. That framework should be grounded in
an understanding of model risk—not just for individual models but also in the aggregate.
The framework should include standards for model development, implementation, use,
and validation.
While the board is ultimately responsible, it generally delegates to senior management
the responsibility for executing and maintaining an effective model risk management
framework. Duties of senior management include establishing adequate policies and
procedures and ensuring compliance, assigning competent staff, overseeing model
development and implementation, evaluating model results, ensuring effective challenge,
reviewing validation and internal audit findings, and taking prompt remedial action when
necessary. In the same manner as for other major areas of risk, senior management,
directly and through relevant committees, is responsible for regularly reporting to the
board on significant model risk, from individual models and in the aggregate, and on
compliance with policy. Board members should ensure that the level of model risk is
within their tolerance and direct changes where appropriate. These actions will set the
tone for the whole organization about the importance of model risk and the need for
active model risk management.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 20
External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Question: How often should a periodic review of each model be conducted?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.84276462 | 0.85841417 (+0.01564956) |
| groundedness | 0.89620660 | 0.94132498 (+0.04511837) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.89585723 | 0.92975533 (+0.03389810) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.84276462 | 0.85841417 (+0.01564956) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.84277521 | 0.83830862 (-0.00446659) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.90102952 | 0.90102952 |
| rouge_1 | 0.38372093 | 0.45517241 (+0.07145148) |
| rouge_2 | 0.37647059 | 0.44755245 (+0.07108186) |
| rouge_l | 0.38372093 | 0.45517241 (+0.07145148) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How often should a periodic review of each model be conducted? | |
| Expected answer | Banks should conduct a periodic review at least annually but more frequently if warranted of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks should conduct a periodic review of each model at least annually, but more frequently if warranted. This is stated on page 10 of sr1107a1.pdf: "Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient." The purpose of this review is to determine if the model is functioning properly and if current validation activities are adequate. The review could affirm previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for additional validation activities. Additionally, the document notes that material changes to models should also be subject to validation, and it is generally good practice for banks to ensure all models undergo the full validation process at some fixed interval. | According to the document, banks should conduct a periodic review of each model at least annually, but more frequently if warranted, to determine whether the model is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient. This is stated on page 10 of sr1107a1.pdf: "Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the existing validation activities are sufficient." The document also notes that it is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the full validation process at some fixed interval, including updated documentation of all activities. |
| Retrieved Context |
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Management should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and
other quantitative testing. If testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable
in some circumstances, management should consider modifying certain model properties,
[Page
Break]
Models are regularly adjusted to take into account new data or techniques, or because of
deterioration in performance. Parallel outcomes analysis, under which both the original
and adjusted models' forecasts are tested against realized outcomes, provides an
important test of such model adjustments. If the adjusted model does not outperform the
original model, developers, users, and reviewers should realize that additional changes—
or even a wholesale redesign—are likely necessary before the adjusted model replaces
the original one.
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 14
include expert judgment to check the intuition behind the outcomes and confirm that the
results make sense. When a model itself relies on expert judgment, quantitative outcomes
analysis helps to evaluate the quality of that judgment. Outcomes analysis should be
conducted on an ongoing basis to test whether the model continues to perform in line
with design objectives and business uses.
A variety of quantitative and qualitative testing and analytical techniques can be used in
outcomes analysis. The choice of technique should be based on the model's
methodology, its complexity, data availability, and the magnitude of potential model risk
to the bank. Outcomes analysis should involve a range of tests because any individual test
will have weaknesses. For example, some tests are better at checking a model's ability to
rank-order or segment observations on a relative basis, whereas others are better at
checking absolute forecast accuracy. Tests should be designed for each situation, as not
all will be effective or feasible in every circumstance, and attention should be paid to
choosing the appropriate type of outcomes analysis for a particular model.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
|
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
|
Question: What is the importance of documentation in model validation?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.80457413 | 0.84248789 (+0.03791376) |
| groundedness | 0.83696443 | 0.86207565 (+0.02511122) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83591772 | 0.84042603 (+0.00450831) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.72411454 | 0.72411454 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88310665 | 0.87678091 (-0.00632574) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91413087 | 0.90179492 (-0.01233596) |
| rouge_1 | 0.16923077 | 0.14860681 (-0.02062396) |
| rouge_2 | 0.05154639 | 0.06230530 (+0.01075890) |
| rouge_l | 0.09743590 | 0.11764706 (+0.02021116) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the importance of documentation in model validation? | |
| Expected answer | Documentation is crucial in model validation as it provides evidence of the model's development, testing, and validation. It helps ensure that the model is well-understood, that its limitations are recognized, and that it is used appropriately. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, documentation plays a critical role in model validation and overall model risk management. The importance of documentation in model validation can be summarized as follows: 1. **Transparency and Understanding**: Documentation should be "sufficiently detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates, its limitations, and its key assumptions" (page 21). This ensures that the validation process is transparent and comprehensible. 2. **Continuity of Operations**: Proper documentation "provides for continuity of operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations, responses, and exceptions" (page 21). 3. **Supporting Effective Challenge**: Documentation of model development and validation activities enables proper critical review by independent parties, which is essential for effective validation (page 9). 4. **Tracking Model Limitations**: Documentation helps identify and track known model limitations, which is crucial for ongoing validation activities (page 10). 5. **Compliance Verification**: "Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record that makes compliance with policy transparent" (page 19). 6. **Validation Reporting**: "Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions" and should include "clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key assumptions" (page 21). 7. **Developmental Evidence**: Documentation provides evidence supporting model choices, including "the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and specific mathematical calculations" which should be "subjected to critical analysis" during validation (page 11). 8. **Testing Activities**: "Included in testing activities should be the purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be appropriately documented" (page 6). The document emphasizes that "Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be ineffective" (page 21), highlighting its fundamental importance to the validation process. Banks are advised to "provide incentives to produce effective and complete model documentation" since it "takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the models well may not appreciate its value" (page 21). | According to the document, documentation plays a critical role in model validation and overall model risk management. The importance of documentation in model validation can be summarized as follows: 1. **Transparency and Understanding**: Documentation should be "sufficiently detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates, its limitations, and its key assumptions" (page 21). This ensures that validation teams can properly assess the model. 2. **Continuity of Operations**: Proper documentation "provides for continuity of operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations, responses, and exceptions" (page 21). 3. **Supporting Effective Challenge**: Documentation enables independent validation staff to effectively challenge model assumptions, design, and implementation. 4. **Tracking Validation Activities**: Documentation creates a record of validation activities including "ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes analysis" (page 21). 5. **Decision Transparency**: The document states that "line of business or other decision makers should document information leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation" (page 21). 6. **Third-Party Models**: For vendor models, "appropriate documentation of the third-party approach" must be available "so that the model can be appropriately validated" (page 21). 7. **Validation Reports**: "Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions" and should include "clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key assumptions" (page 21). 8. **Compliance Evidence**: Documentation provides evidence that validation is being conducted in accordance with policies and regulatory expectations. The document emphasizes that "Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be ineffective" (page 21), highlighting its fundamental importance to the validation process. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Question: How should a bank select and retain vendor models?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.84190905 | 0.84190905 |
| groundedness | 0.84010764 | 0.84010764 |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83497550 | 0.82861661 (-0.00635890) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73396017 | 0.73396017 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.85588812 | 0.86243792 (+0.00654980) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91391599 | 0.91391599 |
| rouge_1 | 0.19318182 | 0.18867925 (-0.00450257) |
| rouge_2 | 0.12571429 | 0.11924119 (-0.00647309) |
| rouge_l | 0.14204545 | 0.14016173 (-0.00188373) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How should a bank select and retain vendor models? | |
| Expected answer | A bank should have a formal process for selecting and retaining vendor models, including the people who should be involved in such decisions. Policies should detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and third-party products. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks should have appropriate processes in place for selecting and retaining vendor models. The document outlines several key requirements and considerations: 1. Banks should require vendors to provide developmental evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use to determine whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. 2. Vendors should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected. 3. Vendors should clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the product's use may be problematic. 4. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to make appropriate modifications and updates over time. 5. Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products, which may involve more reliance on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking if full access to coding and implementation details is not available. 6. If a bank customizes vendor models for its particular circumstances, these customization choices should be documented and justified as part of validation. 7. Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. 8. Banks should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance using the bank's own outcomes. 9. Banks should have contingency plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported by the vendor. 10. Bank policies should "address the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should be involved in such decisions." The document emphasizes that vendor products should be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be somewhat modified due to the external nature of the modeling expertise and proprietary components. | According to the document, banks should have appropriate processes in place for selecting and retaining vendor models. The document outlines several key requirements and considerations: 1. Banks should "require the vendor to provide developmental evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks" (page 16). 2. "Vendors should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected" (page 16). 3. Vendors should "clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the product's use may be problematic" (page 16). 4. Banks should "expect vendors to conduct ongoing performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to make appropriate modifications and updates over time" (page 16). 5. Banks are expected to "validate their own use of vendor products" even though "external models may not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details" (page 16). 6. If a bank customizes vendor models, "customization choices should be documented and justified as part of validation" (page 16). 7. Banks should "obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation" (page 16). 8. Banks should "conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance using the bank's own outcomes" (page 16). 9. Banks should "have contingency plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported by the vendor" (page 16). 10. Banks should establish policies that "address the procedures for selecting and retaining vendor models, including the people who should be involved in such decisions" (page 18). 11. For vendor models, banks should "ensure that appropriate documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be appropriately validated" (page 21). These guidelines help ensure that vendor models are properly evaluated, appropriate for the bank's specific needs, and integrated into the bank's overall model risk management framework. |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 16
As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
Validation of Vendor and Other Third-Party Products
The widespread use of vendor and other third-party products—including data, parameter
values, and complete models—poses unique challenges for validation and other model
risk management activities because the modeling expertise is external to the user and
because some components are considered proprietary. Vendor products should
nevertheless be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework
following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be
somewhat modified.
[Page
Break]
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 16
As a first step, banks should ensure that there are appropriate processes in place for
selecting vendor models. Banks should require the vendor to provide developmental
evidence explaining the product components, design, and intended use, to determine
whether the model is appropriate for the bank's products, exposures, and risks. Vendors
should provide appropriate testing results that show their product works as expected.
They should also clearly indicate the model's limitations and assumptions and where the
product's use may be problematic. Banks should expect vendors to conduct ongoing
performance monitoring and outcomes analysis, with disclosure to their clients, and to
make appropriate modifications and updates over time.
Banks are expected to validate their own use of vendor products. External models may
not allow full access to computer coding and implementation details, so the bank may
have to rely more on sensitivity analysis and benchmarking. Vendor models are often
designed to provide a range of capabilities and so may need to be customized by a bank
for its particular circumstances. A bank's customization choices should be documented
and justified as part of validation. If vendors provide input data or assumptions, or use
them to build models, their relevance for the bank's situation should be investigated.
Banks should obtain information regarding the data used to develop the model and assess
the extent to which that data is representative of the bank's situation. The bank also
should conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance
using the bank's own outcomes.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
Validation of Vendor and Other Third-Party Products
The widespread use of vendor and other third-party products—including data, parameter
values, and complete models—poses unique challenges for validation and other model
risk management activities because the modeling expertise is external to the user and
because some components are considered proprietary. Vendor products should
nevertheless be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework
following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be
somewhat modified.
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
|
Question: What are the two primary reasons for model risk?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.73587194 | 0.83271672 (+0.09684478) |
| groundedness | 0.86086702 | 0.87993549 (+0.01906847) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.86108638 | 0.87444008 (+0.01335371) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73587194 | 0.77167743 (+0.03580548) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88477272 | 0.88310131 (-0.00167141) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.93733292 | 0.93733292 |
| rouge_1 | 0.22489960 | 0.23966942 (+0.01476982) |
| rouge_2 | 0.14574899 | 0.20000000 (+0.05425101) |
| rouge_l | 0.19277108 | 0.19834711 (+0.00557602) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are the two primary reasons for model risk? | |
| Expected answer | The two primary reasons for model risk are: 1) the model may have fundamental errors and produce inaccurate outputs, and 2) the model may be used incorrectly or inappropriately. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model risk occurs primarily for two reasons: 1. The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. These errors can occur at any point from design through implementation, including during mathematical calculations, sample design, selection of inputs, and implementation in information systems. Additionally, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs. The quality of model outputs also depends on the quality of input data and assumptions, and errors in inputs or incorrect assumptions will lead to inaccurate outputs. 2. The model may be used incorrectly or inappropriately. Even a fundamentally sound model producing accurate outputs consistent with its design objective may exhibit high model risk if it is misapplied or misused. Models are simplifications of reality, and real-world events may prove those simplifications inappropriate. This is especially concerning if a model is used outside the environment for which it was designed, either intentionally (when applying existing models to new products or markets) or inadvertently (as market conditions or customer behavior changes). Decision makers need to understand a model's limitations to avoid using it in ways inconsistent with its original intent. These definitions appear on page 3-4 of SR Letter 11-7 Attachment. | According to the document, model risk occurs primarily for two reasons: 1. The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. These errors can occur at any point from design through implementation, including during mathematical calculations, theory application, sample design, input selection, and implementation in information systems. Additionally, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs, and errors in inputs or incorrect assumptions will lead to inaccurate outputs. 2. The model may be used incorrectly or inappropriately. Even a fundamentally sound model producing accurate outputs consistent with its design objective may exhibit high model risk if it is misapplied or misused. Models are simplifications of reality, and real-world events may prove those simplifications inappropriate. This risk increases when a model is used outside the environment for which it was designed, either intentionally (when applying existing models to new products or markets) or inadvertently (when market conditions or customer behavior changes). Decision makers need to understand a model's limitations to avoid using it in ways inconsistent with its original intent. These two primary reasons for model risk are explicitly stated on pages 3-4 of the SR Letter 11-7 Attachment. |
| Retrieved Context |
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What is the importance of testing in model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.82176825 | 0.81041539 (-0.01135286) |
| groundedness | 0.89839384 | 0.88903791 (-0.00935593) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83681707 | 0.83093734 (-0.00587974) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.74364343 | 0.74364343 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87129818 | 0.87145228 (+0.00015410) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91320618 | 0.91320618 |
| rouge_1 | 0.22356495 | 0.21902017 (-0.00454478) |
| rouge_2 | 0.17021277 | 0.16231884 (-0.00789393) |
| rouge_l | 0.16918429 | 0.17291066 (+0.00372637) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the importance of testing in model development? | |
| Expected answer | Testing is an integral part of model development, and it is essential to evaluate the model's accuracy, robustness, and stability. It helps to identify potential limitations and assess the model's behavior over a range of input values. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, testing is an integral part of model development and serves several important purposes: 1. Testing evaluates the various components of a model and its overall functioning to determine whether the model is performing as intended (page 6). 2. Model testing includes: - Checking the model's accuracy - Demonstrating that the model is robust and stable - Assessing potential limitations - Evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values - Assessing the impact of assumptions - Identifying situations where the model performs poorly or becomes unreliable (page 6) 3. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of market conditions, including scenarios outside the range of ordinary expectations, and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is intended (page 6). 4. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of model effectiveness (page 6). 5. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those results as inputs should also be evaluated (page 6). 6. Testing activities should include "the purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples" (page 6). 7. Testing activities should be appropriately documented (page 6). 8. Banks should employ a variety of tests since "any single test is rarely sufficient" and "different tests have different strengths and weaknesses under different conditions" (page 6). 9. Testing helps establish the boundaries of model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate (page 11). The document emphasizes that testing is essential for sound model development and risk management, as it helps identify potential issues before a model is implemented and used for business decisions. | According to the document, testing is an integral part of model development and serves several important purposes: 1. Testing helps determine whether the model is performing as intended by checking the model's accuracy, demonstrating robustness and stability, assessing potential limitations, and evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values (page 6). 2. Testing assesses the impact of assumptions and identifies situations where the model performs poorly or becomes unreliable. It should be applied to actual circumstances under various market conditions, including scenarios outside the range of ordinary expectations (page 6). 3. Testing should evaluate extreme values for inputs to identify any boundaries of model effectiveness and assess the impact of model results on other models that rely on those results as inputs (page 6). 4. The document emphasizes that "any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model" (page 6). 5. Testing activities should include "the purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples" and should be appropriately documented (page 6). 6. Sensitivity analysis is specifically mentioned as an important testing approach to "check the impact of small changes in inputs and parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range" (page 11). 7. Model stress testing is recommended "to check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme values, to verify that the model is robust" (page 11). 8. Many of the tests employed during model development should be included in ongoing monitoring and conducted regularly to incorporate additional information as it becomes available (page 12). The document emphasizes that testing is not a straightforward process and requires judgment in selecting appropriate tests based on the model's methodology, complexity, and intended use. |
| Retrieved Context |
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Policies should emphasize testing and analysis, and promote the development of targets
for model accuracy, standards for acceptable levels of discrepancies, and procedures for
review of and response to unacceptable discrepancies. They should include a description
[Page
Break]
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
|
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Management should have a clear plan for using the results of sensitivity analysis and
other quantitative testing. If testing indicates that the model may be inaccurate or unstable
in some circumstances, management should consider modifying certain model properties,
[Page
Break]
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
Question: What is the purpose of validation in model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.77788695 | 0.76095135 (-0.01693560) |
| groundedness | 0.86647344 | 0.83232861 (-0.03414483) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.85223411 | 0.80444675 (-0.04778736) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.77788695 | 0.70656319 (-0.07132376) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88206990 | 0.88659740 (+0.00452750) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.93094158 | 0.91516763 (-0.01577395) |
| rouge_1 | 0.17600000 | 0.17777778 (+0.00177778) |
| rouge_2 | 0.04838710 | 0.03731343 (-0.01107366) |
| rouge_l | 0.11200000 | 0.13333333 (+0.02133333) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the purpose of validation in model development? | |
| Expected answer | Validation is used to assess the quality of a model's design and construction, ensure that the model is well-informed and carefully considered, and verify that it is robust and accurate. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the purpose of validation in model development is to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound, identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact (page 9). The document states that "effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it provides information about the source and extent of model risk" (page 10). Validation can also "reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or predicted values" (page 10). If outcomes consistently fall outside an acceptable range, the models should be redeveloped. The validation process includes three core elements: 1. Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence 2. Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking 3. Outcomes analysis, including back-testing (page 11) Validation should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use to track known model limitations and identify new ones, especially during benign economic conditions when risk estimates can become overly optimistic (page 10). | According to the document, validation serves several important purposes in model development: 1. Validation helps reduce model risk by "identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use" (page 10). 2. It "provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods" and provides information about "the source and extent of model risk" (page 10). 3. Validation "can reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or predicted values" (page 10). 4. It ensures that "models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses" (page 9). 5. Validation helps "identify potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact" (page 9). 6. It verifies that "any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely and substantive manner" (page 10). 7. Validation is essential during "periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic" to ensure models remain effective (page 10). 8. It helps ensure that "changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business practices do not create new model limitations" (page 10). The document emphasizes that validation is a critical component of model risk management, but it is not the only element - sound development, implementation, and use of models are also vital elements of effective model risk management. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
|
Question: What is the importance of documentation in model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.83786178 | 0.81637027 (-0.02149150) |
| groundedness | 0.85885342 | 0.84989222 (-0.00896120) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84041347 | 0.84466016 (+0.00424669) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.75483263 | 0.75483263 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87139148 | 0.87391880 (+0.00252732) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91597831 | 0.91597831 |
| rouge_1 | 0.19753086 | 0.17289720 (-0.02463367) |
| rouge_2 | 0.03105590 | 0.04225352 (+0.01119762) |
| rouge_l | 0.11728395 | 0.10280374 (-0.01448021) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the importance of documentation in model development? | |
| Expected answer | Documentation is crucial in model development. It helps to ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects of the models is sound. Banks should ensure that any adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an appropriate and systematic manner and are well documented. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, documentation plays a critical role in model development and risk management. The text emphasizes several key aspects of documentation's importance: 1. Documentation should be "sufficiently detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates, its limitations, and its key assumptions" (page 21). 2. Proper documentation "provides for continuity of operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations, responses, and exceptions" (page 21). 3. Documentation serves multiple stakeholders: "Developers, users, control and compliance units, and supervisors are all served by effective documentation" (page 21). 4. During model development, documentation should explain "the model methodologies and processing components that implement the theory, including the mathematical specification and the numerical techniques and approximations... with particular attention to merits and limitations" (page 6). 5. Documentation must cover data quality and relevance: "The data and other information used to develop a model are of critical importance; there should be rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance, and appropriate documentation" (page 6). 6. Documentation should include "developmental evidence in support of all model choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and specific mathematical calculations" (page 11). 7. Without adequate documentation, "model risk assessment and management will be ineffective" (page 21). 8. Model developers should have responsibility for thorough documentation during development, which "should be kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes" (page 21). The document also notes that banks should "provide incentives to produce effective and complete model documentation" since documentation "takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the models well may not appreciate its value" (page 21). | According to the provided documents, documentation plays a critical role in model development and risk management. The SR Letter 11-7 emphasizes several key aspects of documentation importance: 1. Transparency and Understanding: Documentation should be "sufficiently detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates, its limitations, and its key assumptions" (page 21). This ensures that all stakeholders can comprehend the model's functioning. 2. Model Development Evidence: Documentation should include "the design, theory, and logic underlying the model" which should be "well documented and generally supported by published research and sound industry practice" (page 6). The document states that "model methodologies and processing components that implement the theory, including the mathematical specification and the numerical techniques and approximations, should be explained in detail with particular attention to merits and limitations" (page 6). 3. Data Quality and Assumptions: Documentation should cover "data and other information used to develop a model" with "rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance, and appropriate documentation" (page 6). If data proxies or adjustments are made, "these factors should be properly tracked and analyzed so that users are aware of potential limitations" (page 6). 4. Operational Continuity: Documentation "provides for continuity of operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations, responses, and exceptions" (page 21). 5. Testing and Validation: "Testing activities should be appropriately documented" (page 6), including "purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples" (page 6). 6. Ongoing Monitoring: Documentation should be maintained for "ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes analysis" (page 21). 7. Model Selection and Validation: "Line of business or other decision makers should document information leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation" (page 21). 8. Third-Party Models: For vendor models, "appropriate documentation of the third-party approach" should be available "so that the model can be appropriately validated" (page 21). The document acknowledges that "documentation takes time and effort" and recommends that "banks should therefore provide incentives to produce effective and complete model documentation" (page 21). It also assigns responsibility to "model developers during model development for thorough documentation, which should be kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes" (page 21). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 18
of the processes used to select and retain vendor models, including the people who should
be involved in such decisions.
The prioritization, scope, and frequency of validation activities should be addressed in
these policies. They should establish standards for the extent of validation that should be
performed before models are put into production and the scope of ongoing validation.
The policies should also detail the requirements for validation of vendor models and
third-party products. Finally, they should require maintenance of detailed documentation
of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of
models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and
their resolution.
Policies should identify the roles and assign responsibilities within the model risk
management framework with clear detail on staff expertise, authority, reporting lines, and
continuity. They should also outline controls on the use of external resources for
validation and compliance and specify how that work will be integrated into the model
risk management framework.
Roles and Responsibilities
Conceptually, the roles in model risk management can be divided among ownership,
controls, and compliance. While there are several ways in which banks can assign the
responsibilities associated with these roles, it is important that reporting lines and
incentives be clear, with potential conflicts of interest identified and addressed.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 6
underlying the model should be well documented and generally supported by published
research and sound industry practice. The model methodologies and processing
components that implement the theory, including the mathematical specification and the
numerical techniques and approximations, should be explained in detail with particular
attention to merits and limitations. Developers should ensure that the components work
as intended, are appropriate for the intended business purpose, and are conceptually
sound and mathematically and statistically correct. Comparison with alternative theories
and approaches is a fundamental component of a sound modeling process.
The data and other information used to develop a model are of critical importance; there
should be rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance, and appropriate
documentation. Developers should be able to demonstrate that such data and information
are suitable for the model and that they are consistent with the theory behind the
approach and with the chosen methodology. If data proxies are used, they should be
carefully identified, justified, and documented. If data and information are not
representative of the bank's portfolio or other characteristics, or if assumptions are made
to adjust the data and information, these factors should be properly tracked and analyzed
so that users are aware of potential limitations. This is particularly important for external
data and information (from a vendor or outside party), especially as they relate to new
products, instruments, or activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
|
Question: What should be validated in model validation?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.80862695 | 0.75839075 (-0.05023620) |
| groundedness | 0.88045782 | 0.84611716 (-0.03434065) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.85265863 | 0.85490810 (+0.00224947) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.80862695 | 0.74551072 (-0.06311623) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.85319864 | 0.85094833 (-0.00225031) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.90147699 | 0.90147699 |
| rouge_1 | 0.08135593 | 0.09122807 (+0.00987214) |
| rouge_2 | 0.05460751 | 0.07067138 (+0.01606387) |
| rouge_l | 0.07457627 | 0.07017544 (-0.00440083) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What should be validated in model validation? | |
| Expected answer | All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to validation. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model validation should include validation of all model components, including input, processing, and reporting. This applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased from or developed by vendors or consultants (page 9). The document outlines three core elements of comprehensive validation: 1. **Evaluation of conceptual soundness**, which involves: - Assessing the quality of model design and construction - Reviewing documentation and empirical evidence supporting methods and variables - Understanding model limitations and assumptions - Evaluating the theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and mathematical calculations - Assessing the relevance of data used to build the model (page 11) 2. **Ongoing monitoring**, which includes: - Confirming the model is appropriately implemented and performing as intended - Evaluating whether changes in products, exposures, activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustments - Verifying that extensions beyond original scope are valid - Assessing model limitations identified in development - Process verification and benchmarking (page 12) 3. **Outcomes analysis**, which involves: - Comparing model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes - Assessing accuracy of estimates or forecasts - Evaluating rank-ordering ability - Using statistical tests or other quantitative measures (page 13) For vendor models specifically, validation should include: - Ensuring appropriate processes for selecting vendor models - Validating the bank's own use of vendor products - Conducting sensitivity analysis and benchmarking - Investigating the relevance of input data or assumptions - Assessing the extent to which vendor data is representative of the bank's situation - Conducting ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis using the bank's own outcomes (page 16) The document emphasizes that "the rigor and sophistication of validation should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations" (page 9). | According to the document, model validation should encompass all components of a model. Specifically: 1. All model components should be subject to validation, including "input, processing, and reporting" (page 9). This applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased from or developed by vendors or consultants. 2. The validation process should include three core elements (page 11): - Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence - Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking - Outcomes analysis, including back-testing 3. The validation should assess: - The quality of model design and construction (page 11) - Documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods and variables - Model limitations and assumptions - The judgment exercised in model design and construction - The accuracy and robustness of the model (page 6) - The model's behavior over a range of input values - The impact of assumptions - Situations where the model performs poorly or becomes unreliable 4. For vendor models specifically, validation should include (page 16): - The bank's own use of the vendor products - Customization choices made by the bank - The relevance of input data or assumptions for the bank's situation - Ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis using the bank's own outcomes 5. Process verification should check (page 12): - That all model components are functioning as designed - The accuracy, completeness, and consistency of internal and external data inputs - Computer code implementing the model - System integration - Reports derived from model outputs The document emphasizes that "the rigor and sophistication of validation should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations" (page 9). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
|
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
|
Question: What are some general guidelines for maintaining a model inventory?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.82523263 | 0.75129525 (-0.07393737) |
| groundedness | 0.89096656 | 0.82573366 (-0.06523290) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84044512 | 0.85463153 (+0.01418641) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73829524 | 0.75129525 (+0.01300001) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.84388329 | 0.84356181 (-0.00032149) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.88924825 | 0.88924825 |
| rouge_1 | 0.43962848 | 0.43506494 (-0.00456355) |
| rouge_2 | 0.36137072 | 0.31372549 (-0.04764523) |
| rouge_l | 0.40866873 | 0.31168831 (-0.09698042) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are some general guidelines for maintaining a model inventory? | |
| Expected answer | The inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage. However, it should describe the purpose and products for which the model is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It should also list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying components, model outputs and their intended use, and indicate whether models are functioning properly. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, banks should maintain a comprehensive model inventory with specific information about all models that are implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While the inventory may contain varying levels of information based on model complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the document provides several general guidelines: 1. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which each model is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. 2. It should list the type and source of inputs used by each model and underlying components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their intended use. 3. The inventory should indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. 4. It should include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of model development and validation. 5. The inventory should document the dates of completed and planned validation activities. 6. It should specify the time frame during which each model is expected to remain valid. 7. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other variations. The document also notes that while each line of business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should be charged with maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models to help the bank evaluate its model risk in the aggregate. | According to the document, banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should be charged with maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models to help evaluate model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other variations. The general guidelines for model inventory include: 1. Description of the purpose and products for which the model is designed 2. Actual or expected usage of the model 3. Any restrictions on model use 4. Type and source of inputs used by the model 5. Underlying components (which may include other models) 6. Model outputs and their intended use 7. Indication of whether models are functioning properly 8. Description of when models were last updated 9. List of any exceptions to policy 10. Names of individuals responsible for various aspects of model development and validation 11. Dates of completed and planned validation activities 12. Time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid The document notes that while the inventory may contain varying levels of information based on model complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, these guidelines provide a general framework for maintaining a comprehensive model inventory. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
|
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
While conservative use of models is prudent in general, banks should be careful in
applying conservatism broadly or claiming to make conservative adjustments or add-ons
to address model risk, because the impact of such conservatism in complex models may
not be obvious or intuitive. Model aspects that appear conservative in one model may not
be truly conservative compared with alternative methods. For example, simply picking an
extreme point on a given modeled distribution may not be conservative if the distribution
was misestimated or misspecified in the first place. Furthermore, initially conservative
assumptions may not remain conservative over time. Therefore, banks should justify and
substantiate claims that model outputs are conservative with a definition and
measurement of that conservatism that is communicated to model users. In some cases,
sensitivity analysis or other types of stress testing can be used to demonstrate that a
model is indeed conservative. Another way in which banks may choose to be
conservative is to hold an additional cushion of capital to protect against potential losses
associated with model risk. However, conservatism can become an impediment to proper
model development and application if it is seen as a solution that dissuades the bank from
making the effort to improve the model; in addition, excessive conservatism can lead
model users to discount the model outputs.
|
Question: Who should ensure that models are functioning properly?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.81076479 | 0.82875504 (+0.01799025) |
| groundedness | 0.87711304 | 0.86699115 (-0.01012189) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.81529261 | 0.83037707 (+0.01508446) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73388895 | 0.73388895 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87814407 | 0.87723279 (-0.00091128) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.93864894 | 0.93864894 |
| rouge_1 | 0.10833333 | 0.11023622 (+0.00190289) |
| rouge_2 | 0.05042017 | 0.05555556 (+0.00513539) |
| rouge_l | 0.08333333 | 0.09448819 (+0.01115486) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | Who should ensure that models are functioning properly? | |
| Expected answer | Model developers, users, control and compliance units, and supervisors should ensure that models are functioning properly. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, multiple parties have responsibilities for ensuring that models are functioning properly: 1. Model owners (typically business units) are "responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and used" and should "ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate validation and approval processes" (page 18). 2. Risk control staff have responsibilities for "managing the independent validation and review process" and should communicate "issues and problems identified through validation and other forms of oversight" to relevant individuals throughout the organization (page 18). 3. Ongoing monitoring, which confirms "that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is performing as intended," is essential and "begins when a model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use" (page 12). 4. Internal audit should "verify records of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner" and evaluate "the reliability of data used by models" (page 19). 5. For vendor models, banks should "expect vendors to conduct ongoing performance monitoring and outcomes analysis" while banks themselves are "expected to validate their own use of vendor products" and "conduct ongoing monitoring and outcomes analysis of vendor model performance" (page 16). The document emphasizes that process verification should check "that all model components are functioning as designed" including verifying data inputs and computer code implementation (page 12). | According to the document, multiple parties have responsibilities for ensuring that models are functioning properly: 1. Model owners (typically business units) are "responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and used" (page 18). They should "ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate validation and approval processes" and "provide all necessary information for validation activities." 2. Risk control staff have responsibilities for "managing the independent validation and review process" and should "communicate issues and problems identified through validation and other forms of oversight... to relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior management, with a plan for corrective action" (page 18). 3. Ongoing monitoring is essential to "confirm that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is performing as intended" (page 12). This monitoring includes "process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed" (page 12). 4. Internal audit should "verify records of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner" and "evaluate whether model risk management is comprehensive, rigorous, and effective" (page 19). 5. Senior management is responsible for "overseeing model development and implementation, evaluating model results, ensuring effective challenge, reviewing validation and internal audit findings, and taking prompt remedial action when necessary" (page 17). The document emphasizes that model risk management should be a shared responsibility with clear roles and reporting lines to ensure models are functioning properly throughout their lifecycle. |
| Retrieved Context |
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
|
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
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Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
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Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
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Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
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Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
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Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
|
Question: What is the role of developers in model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.79707698 | 0.78733255 (-0.00974443) |
| groundedness | 0.86225397 | 0.86208886 (-0.00016511) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.81643872 | 0.80697316 (-0.00946556) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73592410 | 0.73592410 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87155102 | 0.86073863 (-0.01081239) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.90531819 | 0.90103149 (-0.00428670) |
| rouge_1 | 0.13414634 | 0.11683849 (-0.01730785) |
| rouge_2 | 0.08588957 | 0.04844291 (-0.03744666) |
| rouge_l | 0.09756098 | 0.08934708 (-0.00821390) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the role of developers in model development? | |
| Expected answer | Developers play a crucial role in model development as they exercise subjective judgment at various stages of model development, implementation, use, and validation. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model developers play a crucial role in the model development process with several key responsibilities: 1. Model developers are responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and used. They should document the purpose, design, theory, and logic underlying the model thoroughly (page 6). 2. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing components. Their training and experience affects the extent of model risk (page 5). 3. Developers should ensure that model components work as intended, are appropriate for the intended business purpose, and are conceptually sound and mathematically and statistically correct (page 6). 4. They should demonstrate that data and information used are suitable for the model and consistent with the theory and chosen methodology. If data proxies are used, developers should carefully identify, justify, and document them (page 6). 5. Developers are responsible for thorough documentation during model development, which should be kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes (page 21). 6. They should conduct testing to check the model's accuracy, demonstrate robustness and stability, assess potential limitations, and evaluate the model's behavior over a range of input values (page 6). 7. While developers are an important source of information during validation, they cannot be relied on as an objective or sole source for assessing model quality (page 9). 8. In some cases, developers may take statistical output from a model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments, which should be conducted in an appropriate and systematic manner and well documented (page 7). The document emphasizes that model development is not a straightforward or routine technical process but often a multidisciplinary activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields, requiring considerable subjective judgment at various stages. | According to the document, model developers play several critical roles in the model development process: 1. They are responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and used (page 18). 2. They must document the design, theory, and logic underlying the model thoroughly. This documentation should be "sufficiently detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates, its limitations, and its key assumptions" (page 21). 3. Developers need to ensure that model components work as intended, are appropriate for the intended business purpose, and are conceptually sound and mathematically and statistically correct (page 6). 4. They must conduct rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance, with appropriate documentation. Developers should demonstrate that data and information are suitable for the model and consistent with the theory and methodology (page 6). 5. Developers should keep documentation up-to-date as the model and application environment changes (page 21). 6. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing components (page 5). 7. Developers should ensure that the more judgmental and qualitative aspects of their models are developed soundly, and any adjustments made during development are conducted in an appropriate and systematic manner and well documented (page 7). 8. They should compare their approach with alternative theories and approaches as "a fundamental component of a sound modeling process" (page 6). The document emphasizes that "model development is not a straightforward or routine technical process" and that the "training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects the extent of model risk" (page 5). |
| Retrieved Context |
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
|
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
An integral part of model development is testing, in which the various components of a
model and its overall functioning are evaluated to determine whether the model is
performing as intended. Model testing includes checking the model's accuracy,
demonstrating that the model is robust and stable, assessing potential limitations, and
evaluating the model's behavior over a range of input values. It should also assess the
impact of assumptions and identify situations where the model performs poorly or
becomes unreliable. Testing should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of
market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations,
and should encompass the variety of products or applications for which the model is
intended. Extreme values for inputs should be evaluated to identify any boundaries of
model effectiveness. The impact of model results on other models that rely on those
results as inputs should also be evaluated. Included in testing activities should be the
purpose, design, and execution of test plans, summary results with commentary and
evaluation, and detailed analysis of informative samples. Testing activities should be
appropriately documented.
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
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SR Letter 11-7
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This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
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Attachment
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putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
|
Question: What are some challenges associated with back-testing?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.83085619 | 0.74875083 (-0.08210537) |
| groundedness | 0.88731898 | 0.86420074 (-0.02311825) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83499335 | 0.81792233 (-0.01707102) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73289102 | 0.73289102 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.83072085 | 0.82703257 (-0.00368829) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.88045314 | 0.88045314 |
| rouge_1 | 0.22939068 | 0.21960784 (-0.00978284) |
| rouge_2 | 0.12274368 | 0.09486166 (-0.02788202) |
| rouge_l | 0.14336918 | 0.14901961 (+0.00565043) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are some challenges associated with back-testing? | |
| Expected answer | Analysis of the results of back-testing can pose challenges, such as choosing appropriate statistical tests and interpreting the results, especially when dealing with a large number of forecasts over different conditions or time periods. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, there are several challenges associated with back-testing: 1. Analysis of back-testing results can be challenging because "it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces unambiguous results" (page 15). 2. Back-testing may involve analyzing "a large number of forecasts over different conditions at a point in time or over multiple time periods," which makes interpretation complex (page 15). 3. Statistical testing is essential for back-testing, but this "can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the interpretation of results" (page 15). 4. Models with long forecast horizons present a particular challenge for back-testing because of "the amount of time it would take to accumulate the necessary data" (page 15). 5. For some models, back-testing may be limited due to "lack of data or of price observability" (page 15). 6. A single back-testing approach may not be sufficient. For example, when evaluating value-at-risk (VaR), banks should not only measure "the frequency of losses in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator" but also "use other tests, such as assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against other estimated percentiles" (pages 14-15). The document recommends that for models with long forecast horizons, back-testing should be supplemented with "evaluation over shorter periods" and "early warning" metrics to measure performance shortly after model introduction, as well as trend analysis of performance over time (page 15). | According to the document, back-testing (a form of outcomes analysis that compares actual outcomes with model forecasts) presents several specific challenges: 1. It is "not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces unambiguous results" (page 15). 2. Analysis of results can be difficult even with "high-quality and well-designed back-testing" (page 15). 3. Statistical testing is essential when analyzing multiple forecasts over different conditions or time periods, but this "can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the interpretation of results" (page 15). 4. For models with long forecast horizons, there's a challenge related to the "amount of time it would take to accumulate the necessary data" (page 15). 5. When performing back-testing for value-at-risk (VaR) models, simply measuring "the frequency of losses in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator" is insufficient, and banks should use additional tests (page 14). 6. Banks may sometimes have "a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-testing" due to "lack of data or of price observability" (page 15). The document recommends that for models with long forecast horizons, back-testing should be supplemented by "evaluation over shorter periods" and "early warning" metrics to measure performance shortly after model introduction, along with trend analysis of performance over time (page 15). |
| Retrieved Context |
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
The nature of testing and analysis will depend on the type of model and will be judged by
different criteria depending on the context. For example, the appropriate statistical tests
depend on specific distributional assumptions and the purpose of the model. Furthermore,
in many cases statistical tests cannot unambiguously reject false hypotheses or accept true
ones based on sample information. Different tests have different strengths and
weaknesses under different conditions. Any single test is rarely sufficient, so banks
should apply a variety of tests to develop a sound model.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
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3. Outcomes Analysis
The third core element of the validation process is outcomes analysis, a comparison of
model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes. The precise nature of the comparison
depends on the objectives of a model, and might include an assessment of the accuracy of
estimates or forecasts, an evaluation of rank-ordering ability, or other appropriate tests. In
all cases, such comparisons help to evaluate model performance, by establishing expected
ranges for those actual outcomes in relation to the intended objectives and assessing the
reasons for observed variation between the two. If outcomes analysis produces evidence
of poor performance, the bank should take action to address those issues. Outcomes
analysis typically relies on statistical tests or other quantitative measures. It can also
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Validation of Vendor and Other Third-Party Products
The widespread use of vendor and other third-party products—including data, parameter
values, and complete models—poses unique challenges for validation and other model
risk management activities because the modeling expertise is external to the user and
because some components are considered proprietary. Vendor products should
nevertheless be incorporated into a bank's broader model risk management framework
following the same principles as applied to in-house models, although the process may be
somewhat modified.
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Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
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Policies should emphasize testing and analysis, and promote the development of targets
for model accuracy, standards for acceptable levels of discrepancies, and procedures for
review of and response to unacceptable discrepancies. They should include a description
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
Back-testing is one form of outcomes analysis; specifically, it involves the comparison of
actual outcomes with model forecasts during a sample time period not used in model
development and at an observation frequency that matches the forecast horizon or
performance window of the model. The comparison is generally done using expected
ranges or statistical confidence intervals around the model forecasts. When outcomes fall
outside those intervals, the bank should analyze the discrepancies and investigate the
causes that are significant in terms of magnitude or frequency. The objective of the
analysis is to determine whether differences stem from the omission of material factors
from the model, whether they arise from errors with regard to other aspects of model
specification such as interaction terms or assumptions of linearity, or whether they are
purely random and thus consistent with acceptable model performance. Analysis of in-
sample fit and of model performance in holdout samples (data set aside and not used to
estimate the original model) are important parts of model development but are not
substitutes for back-testing.
A well-known example of back-testing is the evaluation of value-at-risk (VaR), in which
actual profit and loss is compared with a model forecast loss distribution. Significant
deviation in expected versus actual performance and unexplained volatility in the profits
and losses of trading activities may indicate that hedging and pricing relationships are not
adequately measured by a given approach. Along with measuring the frequency of losses
in excess of a single VaR percentile estimator, banks should use other tests, such as
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 15
assessing any clustering of exceptions and checking the distribution of losses against
other estimated percentiles.
Analysis of the results of even high-quality and well-designed back-testing can pose
challenges, since it is not a straightforward, mechanical process that always produces
unambiguous results. The purpose is to test the model, not individual forecast values.
Back-testing may entail analysis of a large number of forecasts over different conditions
at a point in time or over multiple time periods. Statistical testing is essential in such
cases, yet such testing can pose challenges in both the choice of appropriate tests and the
interpretation of results; banks should support and document both the choice of tests and
the interpretation of results.
Models with long forecast horizons should be back-tested, but given the amount of time it
would take to accumulate the necessary data, that testing should be supplemented by
evaluation over shorter periods. Banks should employ outcomes analysis consisting of
"early warning" metrics designed to measure performance beginning very shortly after
model introduction and trend analysis of performance over time. These outcomes analysis
tools are not substitutes for back-testing, which should still be performed over the longer
time period, but rather very important complements.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 11
Key Elements of Comprehensive
Validation
An effective validation framework should include three core elements:
•
Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence
•
Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking
•
Outcomes analysis, including back-testing
1. Evaluation of Conceptual Soundness
This element involves assessing the quality of the model design and construction. It
entails review of documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and
variables selected for the model. Documentation and testing should convey an
understanding of model limitations and assumptions. Validation should ensure that
judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully
considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice.
Developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as
part of the ongoing validation process, in particular whenever there is a material change
in the model.
Policies should emphasize testing and analysis, and promote the development of targets
for model accuracy, standards for acceptable levels of discrepancies, and procedures for
review of and response to unacceptable discrepancies. They should include a description
[Page
Break]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What are the factors that influence model risk?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.81691940 | 0.80740535 (-0.00951404) |
| groundedness | 0.86140132 | 0.88815510 (+0.02675378) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.80410443 | 0.81624609 (+0.01214166) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.71400137 | 0.71400137 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87875298 | 0.87919189 (+0.00043890) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91668584 | 0.91668584 |
| rouge_1 | 0.13103448 | 0.08176101 (-0.04927348) |
| rouge_2 | 0.09027778 | 0.01898734 (-0.07129044) |
| rouge_l | 0.10344828 | 0.05660377 (-0.04684450) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What are the factors that influence model risk? | |
| Expected answer | The experience and judgment of developers, technical knowledge, and the selection of inputs and processing components all influence model risk. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, several factors influence model risk: 1. **Model complexity**: The document states that "Model risk increases with greater model complexity" (page 4). More complex models introduce more potential points of failure. 2. **Uncertainty about inputs and assumptions**: The document mentions that higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions increases model risk (page 4). This includes issues with data quality and relevance. 3. **Breadth of use**: The document indicates that "broader use" of models increases risk (page 4), especially when models are used outside the environment for which they were designed. 4. **Potential impact**: Models with "larger potential impact" on the bank's financial condition carry greater risk (pages 4-5). 5. **Errors in model development**: The document explains that "the model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs" (page 3). These errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. 6. **Incorrect application or misuse**: Even sound models can exhibit high risk if "misapplied or misused" (page 4). This includes using models outside their intended environment. 7. **Aggregate interactions**: The document notes that "Aggregate model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on common assumptions, data, or methodologies" (page 4). 8. **Limitations in validation**: Inadequate validation processes can fail to identify model weaknesses, as the document emphasizes the importance of "effective challenge" (page 4). 9. **Governance weaknesses**: Poor oversight, inadequate policies, or insufficient controls can increase model risk across the organization. 10. **Staff expertise**: The document notes that "the experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing components" (page 5). | According to the documents, several factors influence model risk: 1. **Model Complexity**: "Model risk increases with greater model complexity" (page 4). More complex models can introduce more potential points of failure. 2. **Input Uncertainty**: "Higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions" increases model risk (page 4). When data inputs or assumptions are uncertain, the model's outputs become less reliable. 3. **Breadth of Use**: Model risk increases with "broader use" of the model (page 4). Models used across multiple business lines or for multiple purposes may introduce more risk. 4. **Potential Impact**: "Larger potential impact" of model decisions increases the associated risk (page 4). Models that drive significant financial decisions carry more risk. 5. **Aggregate Interactions**: "Aggregate model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on common assumptions, data, or methodologies" (page 4). When multiple models share dependencies, risks can compound. 6. **Model Limitations**: Models are "simplified representations of real-world relationships" and "are never perfect" (page 3). These inherent limitations contribute to model risk. 7. **Implementation Errors**: "Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation" (page 3), including in mathematical calculations, sample design, numerical routines, input selection, and information systems implementation. 8. **Inappropriate Use**: "Even a fundamentally sound model producing accurate outputs consistent with the design objective of the model may exhibit high model risk if it is misapplied or misused" (page 4). Using models outside their intended environment increases risk. 9. **Data Quality**: "The data and other information used to develop a model are of critical importance" (page 6). Poor data quality can significantly increase model risk. 10. **Inadequate Validation**: Lack of "effective challenge" and proper validation increases model risk (page 4). These factors collectively determine the level of model risk that banks need to manage through their model risk management frameworks. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 20
External Resources
Although model risk management is an internal process, a bank may decide to engage
external resources to help execute certain activities related to the model risk management
framework. These activities could include model validation and review, compliance
functions, or other activities in support of internal audit. These resources may provide
added knowledge and another level of critical and effective challenge, which may
improve the internal model development and risk management processes. However, this
potential benefit should be weighed against the added costs for such resources and the
added time that external parties require to understand internal data, systems, and other
relevant bank-specific circumstances.
Whenever external resources are used, the bank should specify the activities to be
conducted in a clearly written and agreed-upon scope of work. A designated internal
party from the bank should be able to understand and evaluate the results of validation
and risk-control activities conducted by external resources. The internal party is
responsible for: verifying that the agreed upon scope of work has been completed;
evaluating and tracking identified issues and ensuring they are addressed; and making
sure that completed work is incorporated into the bank's overall model risk management
framework. If the external resources are only utilized to do a portion of validation or
compliance work, the bank should coordinate internal resources to complete the full
range of work needed. The bank should have a contingency plan in case an external
resource is no longer available or is unsatisfactory.
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
|
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
|
Question: Who should conduct validation work and what kind of authority should they have?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.78429930 | 0.77009697 (-0.01420233) |
| groundedness | 0.89005955 | 0.88340931 (-0.00665024) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.82339829 | 0.82215934 (-0.00123895) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.71600412 | 0.71600412 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.84830212 | 0.85405583 (+0.00575371) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89925263 | 0.89925263 |
| rouge_1 | 0.12790698 | 0.12359551 (-0.00431147) |
| rouge_2 | 0.12280702 | 0.11864407 (-0.00416295) |
| rouge_l | 0.12790698 | 0.12359551 (-0.00431147) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | Who should conduct validation work and what kind of authority should they have? | |
| Expected answer | Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, validation work should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence. The document emphasizes several key points about who should conduct validation work and what authority they should have: 1. Independence: Validation should generally "be done by people who are not responsible for development or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid." This independence helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. 2. Expertise requirements: Staff conducting validation work should have "the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise" as well as "a high level of technical expertise" due to the complexity of many models. They should also have "a significant degree of familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use." 3. Authority: Staff conducting validation work should have "explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies." The document states that "the individual or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely and substantive manner." 4. Practical considerations: While independence is important, "some validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users." However, in such cases, "it is essential that such validation work be subject to critical review by an independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation." 5. Organizational standing: The document notes that influence "can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or designated responsibilities" and "may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a result of validation." The document emphasizes that validation staff should have the authority to restrict model use and monitor limits on model usage, with the ultimate goal of ensuring "effective challenge" of models. | According to the document, validation work should be conducted by staff with appropriate incentives, competence, and influence. The document provides several key points about who should conduct validation work and what authority they should have: 1. Independence: Validation should generally "be done by people who are not responsible for development or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid" (page 9). This independence helps ensure that incentives are aligned with the goals of model validation. 2. Expertise requirements: Staff conducting validation work should have "the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise" as well as "a high level of technical expertise" due to the complexity of many models. They should also have "a significant degree of familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use" (page 9). 3. Authority: Staff conducting validation work should have "explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies" (page 9). The individual or unit to whom validation staff report "should have sufficient influence or stature within the bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely and substantive manner" (page 10). 4. Practical considerations: While independence is important, "some validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users." However, in these cases, "such validation work be subject to critical review by an independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation" (page 9). 5. Demonstration of influence: The authority of validation staff can be "reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a result of validation" (page 10). The document emphasizes that the overall quality of the validation process is judged by how models are subjected to critical review, including documentation quality, issues identified by objective parties, and management's actions to address model issues. |
| Retrieved Context |
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
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SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
3. Outcomes Analysis
The third core element of the validation process is outcomes analysis, a comparison of
model outputs to corresponding actual outcomes. The precise nature of the comparison
depends on the objectives of a model, and might include an assessment of the accuracy of
estimates or forecasts, an evaluation of rank-ordering ability, or other appropriate tests. In
all cases, such comparisons help to evaluate model performance, by establishing expected
ranges for those actual outcomes in relation to the intended objectives and assessing the
reasons for observed variation between the two. If outcomes analysis produces evidence
of poor performance, the bank should take action to address those issues. Outcomes
analysis typically relies on statistical tests or other quantitative measures. It can also
[Page
Break]
|
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Internal audit should verify that acceptable policies are in place and that model owners
and control groups comply with those policies. Internal audit should also verify records
of model use and validation to test whether validations are performed in a timely manner
and whether models are subject to controls that appropriately account for any weaknesses
in validation activities. Accuracy and completeness of the model inventory should be
assessed. In addition, processes for establishing and monitoring limits on model usage
should be evaluated. Internal audit should determine whether procedures for updating
models are clearly documented, and test whether those procedures are being carried out
as specified. Internal audit should check that model owners and control groups are
meeting documentation standards, including risk reporting. Additionally, internal audit
should perform assessments of supporting operational systems and evaluate the reliability
of data used by models.
Internal audit also has an important role in ensuring that validation work is conducted
properly and that appropriate effective challenge is being carried out. It should evaluate
the objectivity, competence, and organizational standing of the key validation
participants, with the ultimate goal of ascertaining whether those participants have the
right incentives to discover and report deficiencies. Internal audit should review
validation activities conducted by internal and external parties with the same rigor to see
if those activities are being conducted in accordance with this guidance.
[Page
Break]
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 10
bank to ensure that any issues and deficiencies are appropriately addressed in a timely
and substantive manner. Such influence can be reflected in reporting lines, title, rank, or
designated responsibilities. Influence may be demonstrated by a pattern of actual
instances in which models, or the use of models, have been appropriately changed as a
result of validation.
The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should
be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model. If significant deficiencies
are noted as a result of the validation process, use of the model should not be allowed or
should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved. If
the deficiencies are too severe to be addressed within the model's framework, the model
should be rejected. If it is not feasible to conduct necessary validation activities prior to
model use because of data paucity or other limitations, that fact should be documented
and communicated in reports to users, senior management, and other relevant parties. In
such cases, the uncertainty about the results that the model produces should be mitigated
by other compensating controls. This is particularly applicable to new models and to the
use of existing models in new applications.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
|
Question: What is the role of model validation in model development?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.84080689 | 0.81477827 (-0.02602862) |
| groundedness | 0.86651266 | 0.85128321 (-0.01522945) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.84572044 | 0.84860772 (+0.00288728) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.75367843 | 0.75367843 |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.88696432 | 0.87708824 (-0.00987608) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.93490415 | 0.93490415 |
| rouge_1 | 0.17128463 | 0.19786096 (+0.02657633) |
| rouge_2 | 0.06075949 | 0.05913978 (-0.00161971) |
| rouge_l | 0.10075567 | 0.11229947 (+0.01154380) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the role of model validation in model development? | |
| Expected answer | Model validation is an essential part of model development. It helps to ensure that the model is performing as intended and that it accurately reflects economic and business realities. Validation should be applied to actual circumstances under a variety of market conditions, including scenarios that are outside the range of ordinary expectations. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model validation plays a critical role in model risk management and has several important functions in model development: 1. Model validation helps reduce model risk by "identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use" (page 10). It provides an assessment of the reliability of a model based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. 2. Validation activities should be conducted prior to first use of a model, with the range and rigor of validation being proportional to the potential risk presented by the model. If significant deficiencies are found during validation, "use of the model should not be allowed or should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved" (page 10). 3. A key element of validation during development is the "evaluation of conceptual soundness," which involves "assessing the quality of the model design and construction" and reviewing "documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods used and variables selected for the model" (page 11). 4. Validation ensures that "judgment exercised in model design and construction is well informed, carefully considered, and consistent with published research and with sound industry practice" (page 11). 5. As part of model validation, developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use, including "the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and specific mathematical calculations" (page 11). 6. Validation should include critical analysis of model aspects by "evaluating the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and testing as necessary" (page 11). 7. For material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, validation activities "of appropriate range and rigor" should be conducted before implementation (page 15). 8. The document emphasizes that validation is not just a one-time activity during development but should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use "to track known model limitations and to identify any new ones" (page 10). The guidance makes clear that model validation is an essential component of the model development process, serving as a critical check on model quality and appropriateness before implementation. | According to the documents, model validation plays a critical role in model risk management, though it is not the only essential element. The role of model validation in model development includes: 1. Evaluating conceptual soundness: This involves assessing the quality of model design and construction, reviewing documentation and empirical evidence supporting the methods and variables selected, and ensuring that judgment exercised in model design is well-informed and consistent with research and industry practice (page 11). 2. Providing critical analysis: Validation subjects model aspects to critical analysis by evaluating the quality of developmental evidence and conducting additional testing as necessary. This includes comparing to alternative theories, assessing key assumptions and variables, and evaluating the relevance of data used to build the model (page 11). 3. Testing model robustness: Through sensitivity analysis and stress testing, validation checks model performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values to verify robustness and establish boundaries of model performance (page 11). 4. Identifying limitations: Validation helps identify model errors, limitations, and assumptions, providing information about the source and extent of model risk (page 10). 5. Supporting ongoing improvement: Validation can reveal deterioration in model performance over time and set thresholds for acceptable error levels. If outcomes consistently fall outside acceptable ranges, models should be redeveloped (page 10). 6. Ensuring appropriate implementation: Validation confirms that models are appropriately implemented, being used as intended, and performing as expected (page 12). 7. Providing effective challenge: Validation staff should have explicit authority to challenge developers and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies (page 9). The documents emphasize that developmental evidence should be reviewed before a model goes into use and also as part of the ongoing validation process, particularly whenever there is a material change in the model (page 11). Additionally, validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use to track known limitations and identify new ones (page 10). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Introduction
Scope
Validation
Conclusion..
Use.
Controls.
SUPERVISORY GUIDANCE ON
MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
CONTENTS
I.
Introduction,
page
1
II. Purpose and
Scope,
page
2
III. Overview of Model Risk
Management,
page
3
IV. Model Development, Implementation, and
Use,
page
5
V. Model
Validation,
page
9
VI. Governance, Policies, and
Controls,
page
16
VII.
Conclusion,
page
21
I Unless Page 1
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
April 4, 2011
I. INTRODUCTION
Banks rely heavily on quantitative analysis and models in most aspects of financial
decision making. [Footnote
1
- Unless otherwise indicated, banks refers to national banks and all other institutions for which the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency is the primary supervisor, and to bank holding companies, state member
banks, and all other institutions for which the Federal Reserve Board is the primary supervisor.
End
of
Footnote
1.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
|
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
However, challenge from model users may be weak if the model does not materially
affect their results, if the resulting changes in models are perceived to have adverse
effects on the business line, or if change in general is regarded as expensive or difficult.
User challenges also tend not to be comprehensive because they focus on aspects of
models that have the most direct impact on the user's measured business performance or
compensation, and thus may ignore other elements and applications of the models.
Finally, such challenges tend to be asymmetric, because users are less likely to challenge
an outcome that results in an advantage for them. Indeed, users may incorrectly believe
that model risk is low simply because outcomes from model-based decisions appear
favorable to the institution. Thus, the nature and motivation behind model users' input
should be evaluated carefully, and banks should also solicit constructive suggestions and
criticism from sources independent of the line of business using the model.
Reports used for business decision making play a critical role in model risk management.
Such reports should be clear and comprehensible and take into account the fact that
decision makers and modelers often come from quite different backgrounds and may
interpret the contents in different ways. Reports that provide a range of estimates for
different input-value scenarios and assumption values can give decision makers important
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 19
Compliance with policies is an obligation of model owners and risk-control staff, and
there should be specific processes in place to ensure that these roles are being carried out
effectively and in line with policy. Documentation and tracking of activities surrounding
model development, implementation, use, and validation are needed to provide a record
that makes compliance with policy transparent.
Internal Audit
A bank's internal audit function should assess the overall effectiveness of the model risk
management framework, including the framework's ability to address both types of
model risk described in Section III, for individual models and in the aggregate. Findings
from internal audit related to models should be documented and reported to the board or
its appropriately delegated agent. Banks should ensure that internal audit operates with
the proper incentives, has appropriate skills, and has adequate stature in the organization
to assist in model risk management. Internal audit's role is not to duplicate model risk
management activities. Instead, its role is to evaluate whether model risk management is
comprehensive, rigorous, and effective. To accomplish this evaluation, internal audit staff
should possess sufficient expertise in relevant modeling concepts as well as their use in
particular business lines. If some internal audit staff perform certain validation activities,
then they should not be involved in the assessment of the overall model risk management
framework.
|
Question: What should be included in a bank's inventory of models in use?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.72544509 | 0.72544509 |
| groundedness | 0.82573366 | 0.82573366 |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.82442582 | 0.82323488 (-0.00119095) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.72544509 | 0.72544509 |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.85199049 | 0.85825034 (+0.00625985) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.89980656 | 0.89980656 |
| rouge_1 | 0.23655914 | 0.23487544 (-0.00168369) |
| rouge_2 | 0.11552347 | 0.13620072 (+0.02067725) |
| rouge_l | 0.15770609 | 0.15658363 (-0.00112246) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What should be included in a bank's inventory of models in use? | |
| Expected answer | A bank's inventory of models in use should include detailed documentation of all aspects of the model risk management framework, including an inventory of models in use, results of the modeling and validation processes, and model issues and their resolution. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, a bank should maintain a comprehensive inventory of all models that are implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While the inventory may contain varying levels of information depending on model complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the document provides several guidelines for what should be included in a model inventory: 1. Description of the purpose and products for which the model is designed 2. Actual or expected usage of the model 3. Any restrictions on model use 4. The type and source of inputs used by the model 5. Underlying components (which may include other models) 6. Model outputs and their intended use 7. Indication of whether models are functioning properly 8. Description of when models were last updated 9. List of any exceptions to policy 10. Names of individuals responsible for various aspects of model development and validation 11. Dates of completed and planned validation activities 12. The time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid The document also notes that any variation of a model that warrants a separate validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other variations. Additionally, while each line of business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should be charged with maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models to assist the bank in evaluating its model risk in the aggregate. | According to the document, banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While the inventory may contain varying levels of information based on model complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the document provides several guidelines for what should be included in a bank's inventory of models in use: 1. Description of the purpose and products for which the model is designed 2. Actual or expected usage of the model 3. Any restrictions on model use 4. The type and source of inputs used by the model 5. Underlying components (which may include other models) 6. Model outputs and their intended use 7. Indication of whether models are functioning properly 8. Description of when models were last updated 9. List of any exceptions to policy 10. Names of individuals responsible for various aspects of model development and validation 11. Dates of completed and planned validation activities 12. The time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid The document also notes that any variation of a model that warrants a separate validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other variations. While each line of business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should be charged with maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models to assist the bank in evaluating its model risk in the aggregate. |
| Retrieved Context |
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
|
Model Inventory
Banks should maintain a comprehensive set of information for models implemented for
use, under development for implementation, or recently retired. While each line of
business may maintain its own inventory, a specific party should also be charged with
maintaining a firm-wide inventory of all models, which should assist a bank in evaluating
its model risk in the aggregate. Any variation of a model that warrants a separate
validation should be included as a separate model and cross-referenced with other
variations.
While the inventory may contain varying levels of information, given different model
complexity and the bank's overall level of model usage, the following are some general
guidelines. The inventory should describe the purpose and products for which the model
is designed, actual or expected usage, and any restrictions on use. It is useful for the
inventory to list the type and source of inputs used by a given model and underlying
components (which may include other models), as well as model outputs and their
intended use. It should also indicate whether models are functioning properly, provide a
description of when they were last updated, and list any exceptions to policy. Other items
include the names of individuals responsible for various aspects of the model
development and validation; the dates of completed and planned validation activities; and
the time frame during which the model is expected to remain valid.
[Page
Break]
Based on supervisory and
industry experience over the past several years, this document expands on existing
guidance—most importantly by broadening the scope to include all aspects of model risk
management. Many banks may already have in place a large portion of these practices,
but all banks should ensure that internal policies and procedures are consistent with the
risk management principles and supervisory expectations contained in this guidance.
Details may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this guidance should be
customized to be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities, and
the complexity and extent of its model use. For example, steps taken to apply this
guidance at a community bank using relatively few models of only moderate complexity
might be significantly less involved than those at a larger bank where use of models is
more extensive or complex.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
Systematic procedures for validation help the bank to understand the vendor product and
its capabilities, applicability, and limitations. Such detailed knowledge is necessary for
basic controls of bank operations. It is also very important for the bank to have as much
knowledge in-house as possible, in case the vendor or the bank terminates the contract for
any reason, or if the vendor is no longer in business. Banks should have contingency
plans for instances when the vendor model is no longer available or cannot be supported
by the vendor.
VI. GOVERNANCE, POLICIES, AND CONTROLS
Developing and maintaining strong governance, policies, and controls over the model
risk management framework is fundamentally important to its effectiveness. Even if
model development, implementation, use, and validation are satisfactory, a weak
governance function will reduce the effectiveness of overall model risk management. A
strong governance framework provides explicit support and structure to risk management
functions through policies defining relevant risk management activities, procedures that
implement those policies, allocation of resources, and mechanisms for evaluating whether
policies and procedures are being carried out as specified. Notably, the extent and
sophistication of a bank's governance function is expected to align with the extent and
sophistication of model usage.
[Page
Break]
Policies and Procedures
Consistent with good business practices and existing supervisory expectations, banks
should formalize model risk management activities with policies and the procedures to
implement them. Model risk management policies should be consistent with this
guidance and also be commensurate with the bank's relative complexity, business
activities, corporate culture, and overall organizational structure. The board or its
delegates should approve model risk management policies and review them annually to
ensure consistent and rigorous practices across the organization. Those policies should be
updated as necessary to ensure that model risk management practices remain appropriate
and keep current with changes in market conditions, bank products and strategies, bank
exposures and activities, and practices in the industry. All aspects of model risk
management should be covered by suitable policies, including model and model risk
definitions; assessment of model risk; acceptable practices for model development,
implementation, and use; appropriate model validation activities; and governance and
controls over the model risk management process.
Many of the tests employed as part of model development should be included in ongoing
monitoring and be conducted on a regular basis to incorporate additional information as it
becomes available. New empirical evidence or theoretical research may suggest the need
to modify or even replace original methods. Analysis of the integrity and applicability of
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
A sound development process will produce documented evidence in support of all model
choices, including the overall theoretical construction, key assumptions, data, and
specific mathematical calculations, as mentioned in Section IV. As part of model
validation, those model aspects should be subjected to critical analysis by both evaluating
the quality and extent of developmental evidence and conducting additional analysis and
testing as necessary. Comparison to alternative theories and approaches should be
included. Key assumptions and the choice of variables should be assessed, with analysis
of their impact on model outputs and particular focus on any potential limitations. The
relevance of the data used to build the model should be evaluated to ensure that it is
reasonably representative of the bank's portfolio or market conditions, depending on the
type of model. This is an especially important exercise when a bank uses external data or
the model is used for new products or activities.
Where appropriate to the particular model, banks should employ sensitivity analysis in
model development and validation to check the impact of small changes in inputs and
parameter values on model outputs to make sure they fall within an expected range.
Unexpectedly large changes in outputs in response to small changes in inputs can indicate
an unstable model. Varying several inputs simultaneously as part of sensitivity analysis
can provide evidence of unexpected interactions, particularly if the interactions are
complex and not intuitively clear. Banks benefit from conducting model stress testing to
check performance over a wide range of inputs and parameter values, including extreme
values, to verify that the model is robust. Such testing helps establish the boundaries of
model performance by identifying the acceptable range of inputs as well as conditions
under which the model may become unstable or inaccurate.
|
Question: How should models be developed and implemented?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.76312110 | 0.78461103 (+0.02148993) |
| groundedness | 0.84382405 | 0.83432896 (-0.00949509) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.79020045 | 0.79607504 (+0.00587459) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.71125852 | 0.71320783 (+0.00194931) |
| model_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87689405 | 0.87237164 (-0.00452240) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91550169 | 0.91550169 |
| rouge_1 | 0.11162791 | 0.11134904 (-0.00027887) |
| rouge_2 | 0.04205607 | 0.06881720 (+0.02676113) |
| rouge_l | 0.08372093 | 0.08565310 (+0.00193217) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | How should models be developed and implemented? | |
| Expected answer | Models should be developed and implemented using a disciplined and knowledgeable process that is consistent with the situation and goals of the model user and with bank policy. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, model development and implementation should follow a robust and disciplined process that includes several key elements: 1. **Clear Purpose Statement**: An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that model development is aligned with the intended use (page 5). 2. **Sound Theoretical Foundation**: The design, theory, and logic underlying the model should be well documented and generally supported by published research and sound industry practice (page 6). 3. **Detailed Documentation**: Model methodologies and processing components should be explained in detail with particular attention to merits and limitations. Developers should ensure components work as intended, are appropriate for business purpose, and are conceptually and mathematically sound (page 6). 4. **Rigorous Data Assessment**: There should be rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance with appropriate documentation. Developers should demonstrate that data is suitable for the model and consistent with the theory and methodology (page 6). 5. **Proper Implementation**: Models should be properly coordinated with information systems capabilities. Sound model risk management requires substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data integrity, with controls and testing for proper implementation (page 7). 6. **Judgment and Qualitative Aspects**: Banks should ensure that development of judgmental and qualitative aspects of models is sound. Any adjustments made during development should be conducted in an appropriate, systematic manner and well documented (page 7). 7. **Accounting for Uncertainty**: Models should acknowledge uncertainty and inaccuracy. This can include using a range of outputs rather than point estimates, making conservative adjustments to inputs or calculations, or supplementing with other models (page 8). 8. **Validation Before Use**: The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use should align with the potential risk presented by the model. If significant deficiencies are noted, use should not be allowed or should be permitted only under tight constraints (page 10). 9. **Multidisciplinary Approach**: The modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models should be tailored for specific applications and informed by business uses (page 5). 10. **Appropriate Expertise**: The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing components (page 5). The document emphasizes that model development is not a straightforward or routine technical process, and considerable subjective judgment is exercised at various stages, which elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk management processes. | According to the document, model development and implementation should follow a disciplined and knowledgeable process that aligns with the goals of the model user and bank policy. The document outlines several key aspects of proper model development and implementation: 1. Clear purpose statement: An effective development process begins with "a clear statement of purpose to ensure that model development is aligned with the intended use" (page 5). 2. Sound theoretical foundation: "The design, theory, and logic underlying the model should be well documented and generally supported by published research and sound industry practice" (page 6). 3. Detailed methodology documentation: "The model methodologies and processing components that implement the theory, including the mathematical specification and the numerical techniques and approximations, should be explained in detail with particular attention to merits and limitations" (page 6). 4. Data quality assessment: "The data and other information used to develop a model are of critical importance; there should be rigorous assessment of data quality and relevance, and appropriate documentation" (page 6). If data proxies are used, "they should be carefully identified, justified, and documented" (page 6). 5. Proper system integration: "Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities and requirements of information systems" and require "substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity, together with controls and testing" (page 7). 6. Validation before implementation: "The range and rigor of validation activities conducted prior to first use of a model should be in line with the potential risk presented by use of the model" (page 10). If significant deficiencies are found, "use of the model should not be allowed or should be permitted only under very tight constraints until those issues are resolved" (page 10). 7. Multidisciplinary approach: "The modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields" (page 5). 8. Business relevance: "Models are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for specific applications and informed by business uses" (page 5). 9. Comprehensive documentation: "Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates, its limitations, and its key assumptions" (page 21). 10. Ongoing monitoring: After implementation, models should undergo "ongoing monitoring" to "confirm that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is performing as intended" (page 12). The document emphasizes that model development is not a straightforward technical process but requires significant judgment and expertise, noting that "the experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing components" (page 5). |
| Retrieved Context |
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 5
adjustments to outputs, can be an effective tool, though not an excuse to avoid improving
models.
As is generally the case with other risks, materiality is an important consideration in
model risk management. If at some banks the use of models is less pervasive and has less
impact on their financial condition, then those banks may not need as complex an
approach to model risk management in order to meet supervisory expectations. However,
where models and model output have a material impact on business decisions, including
decisions related to risk management and capital and liquidity planning, and where model
failure would have a particularly harmful impact on a bank's financial condition, a bank's
model risk management framework should be more extensive and rigorous.
Model risk management begins with robust model development, implementation, and
use. Another essential element is a sound model validation process. A third element is
governance, which sets an effective framework with defined roles and responsibilities for
clear communication of model limitations and assumptions, as well as the authority to
restrict model usage. The following sections of this document cover each of these
elements.
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Even with skilled modeling and robust validation, model risk cannot be eliminated, so
other tools should be used to manage model risk effectively. Among these are
establishing limits on model use, monitoring model performance, adjusting or revising
models over time, and supplementing model results with other analysis and information.
Informed conservatism, in either the inputs or the design of a model or through explicit
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
|
IV. MODEL DEVELOPMENT, IMPLEMENTATION, AND USE
Model risk management should include disciplined and knowledgeable development and
implementation processes that are consistent with the situation and goals of the model
user and with bank policy. Model development is not a straightforward or routine
technical process. The experience and judgment of developers, as much as their technical
knowledge, greatly influence the appropriate selection of inputs and processing
components. The training and experience of developers exercising such judgment affects
the extent of model risk. Moreover, the modeling exercise is often a multidisciplinary
activity drawing on economics, finance, statistics, mathematics, and other fields. Models
are employed in real-world markets and events and therefore should be tailored for
specific applications and informed by business uses. In addition, a considerable amount
of subjective judgment is exercised at various stages of model development,
implementation, use, and validation. It is important for decision makers to recognize that
this subjectivity elevates the importance of sound and comprehensive model risk
management processes. [Footnote
4
- Smaller banks that rely on vendor models may be able to satisfy the standards in this guidance without an
in-house staff of technical, quantitative model developers. However, even if a bank relies on vendors for
basic model development, the bank should still choose the particular models and variables that are
appropriate to its size, scale, and lines of business and ensure the models are appropriate for the intended
use.
End
of
Footnote
4.]
Process verification checks that all model components are functioning as designed. It
includes verifying that internal and external data inputs continue to be accurate, complete,
consistent with model purpose and design, and of the highest quality available. Computer
code implementing the model should be subject to rigorous quality and change control
procedures to ensure that the code is correct, that it cannot be altered except by approved
parties, and that all changes are logged and can be audited. System integration can be a
challenge and deserves special attention because the model processing component often
draws from various sources of data, processes large amounts of data, and then feeds into
multiple data repositories and reporting systems. User-developed applications, such as
spreadsheets or ad hoc database applications used to generate quantitative estimates, are
particularly prone to model risk. As the content or composition of information changes
over time, systems may need to be updated to reflect any changes in the data or its use.
Reports derived from model outputs should be reviewed as part of validation to verify
that they are accurate, complete, and informative, and that they contain appropriate
indicators of model performance and limitations.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 7
Banks should ensure that the development of the more judgmental and qualitative aspects
of their models is also sound. In some cases, banks may take statistical output from a
model and modify it with judgmental or qualitative adjustments as part of model
development. While such practices may be appropriate, banks should ensure that any
such adjustments made as part of the development process are conducted in an
appropriate and systematic manner, and are well documented.
Models typically are embedded in larger information systems that manage the flow of
data from various sources into the model and handle the aggregation and reporting of
model outcomes. Model calculations should be properly coordinated with the capabilities
and requirements of information systems. Sound model risk management depends on
substantial investment in supporting systems to ensure data and reporting integrity,
together with controls and testing to ensure proper implementation of models, effective
systems integration, and appropriate use.
Model Use
Model use provides additional opportunity to test whether a model is functioning
effectively and to assess its performance over time as conditions and model applications
change. It can serve as a source of productive feedback and insights from a
knowledgeable internal constituency with strong interest in having models that function
well and reflect economic and business realities. Model users can provide valuable
business insight during the development process. In addition, business managers affected
by model outcomes may question the methods or assumptions underlying the models,
particularly if the managers are significantly affected by and do not agree with the
outcome. Such questioning can be healthy if it is constructive and causes model
developers to explain and justify the assumptions and design of the models.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Model risk should be managed like other types of risk. Banks should identify the sources
of risk and assess the magnitude. Model risk increases with greater model complexity,
higher uncertainty about inputs and assumptions, broader use, and larger potential impact.
Banks should consider risk from individual models and in the aggregate. Aggregate
model risk is affected by interaction and dependencies among models; reliance on
common assumptions, data, or methodologies; and any other factors that could adversely
affect several models and their outputs at the same time. With an understanding of the
source and magnitude of model risk in place, the next step is to manage it properly.
A guiding principle for managing model risk is "effective challenge" of models, that is,
critical analysis by objective, informed parties who can identify model limitations and
assumptions and produce appropriate changes. Effective challenge depends on a
combination of incentives, competence, and influence. Incentives to provide effective
challenge to models are stronger when there is greater separation of that challenge from
the model development process and when challenge is supported by well-designed
compensation practices and corporate culture. Competence is a key to effectiveness since
technical knowledge and modeling skills are necessary to conduct appropriate analysis
and critique. Finally, challenge may fail to be effective without the influence to ensure
that actions are taken to address model issues. Such influence comes from a combination
of explicit authority, stature within the organization, and commitment and support from
higher levels of management.
Model Development and Implementation
An effective development process begins with a clear statement of purpose to ensure that
model development is aligned with the intended use. The design, theory, and logic
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 21
Documentation
Without adequate documentation, model risk assessment and management will be
ineffective. Documentation of model development and validation should be sufficiently
detailed so that parties unfamiliar with a model can understand how the model operates,
its limitations, and its key assumptions. Documentation provides for continuity of
operations, makes compliance with policy transparent, and helps track recommendations,
responses, and exceptions. Developers, users, control and compliance units, and
supervisors are all served by effective documentation. Banks can benefit from advances
in information and knowledge management systems and electronic documentation to
improve the organization, timeliness, and accessibility of the various records and reports
produced in the model risk management process.
Documentation takes time and effort, and model developers and users who know the
models well may not appreciate its value. Banks should therefore provide incentives to
produce effective and complete model documentation. Model developers should have
responsibility during model development for thorough documentation, which should be
kept up-to-date as the model and application environment changes. In addition, the bank
should ensure that other participants in model risk management activities document their
work, including ongoing monitoring, process verification, benchmarking, and outcomes
analysis. Also, line of business or other decision makers should document information
leading to selection of a given model and its subsequent validation. For cases in which a
bank uses models from a vendor or other third party, it should ensure that appropriate
documentation of the third-party approach is available so that the model can be
appropriately validated.
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 12
putting less reliance on its outputs, placing limits on model use, or developing a new
approach.
Qualitative information and judgment used in model development should be evaluated,
including the logic, judgment, and types of information used, to establish the conceptual
soundness of the model and set appropriate conditions for its use. The validation process
should ensure that qualitative, judgmental assessments are conducted in an appropriate
and systematic manner, are well supported, and are documented.
2. Ongoing Monitoring
The second core element of the validation process is ongoing monitoring. Such
monitoring confirms that the model is appropriately implemented and is being used and is
performing as intended.
Ongoing monitoring is essential to evaluate whether changes in products, exposures,
activities, clients, or market conditions necessitate adjustment, redevelopment, or
replacement of the model and to verify that any extension of the model beyond its
original scope is valid. Any model limitations identified in the development stage should
be regularly assessed over time, as part of ongoing monitoring. Monitoring begins when a
model is first implemented in production systems for actual business use. This
monitoring should continue periodically over time, with a frequency appropriate to the
nature of the model, the availability of new data or modeling approaches, and the
magnitude of the risk involved. Banks should design a program of ongoing testing and
evaluation of model performance along with procedures for responding to any problems
that appear. This program should include process verification and benchmarking.
Models are simplified representations of real-world relationships among observed
characteristics, values, and events. Simplification is inevitable, due to the inherent
complexity of those relationships, but also intentional, to focus attention on particular
aspects considered to be most important for a given model application. Model quality can
be measured in many ways: precision, accuracy, discriminatory power, robustness,
stability, and reliability, to name a few. Models are never perfect, and the appropriate
metrics of quality, and the effort that should be put into improving quality, depend on the
situation. For example, precision and accuracy are relevant for models that forecast future
values, while discriminatory power applies to models that rank order risks. In all
situations, it is important to understand a model's capabilities and limitations given its
simplifications and assumptions.
The use of models invariably presents model risk, which is the potential for adverse
consequences from decisions based on incorrect or misused model outputs and reports.
Model risk can lead to financial loss, poor business and strategic decision making, or
damage to a bank's reputation. Model risk occurs primarily for two reasons:
•
The model may have fundamental errors and may produce inaccurate outputs
when viewed against the design objective and intended business uses. The
mathematical calculation and quantification exercise underlying any model
generally involves application of theory, choice of sample design and numerical
routines, selection of inputs and estimation, and implementation in information
systems. Errors can occur at any point from design through implementation. In
addition, shortcuts, simplifications, or approximations used to manage
complicated problems could compromise the integrity and reliability of outputs
[Page
Break]
|
Question: What is the purpose of model validation in banking?
| Metric | Baseline Score | Current Score |
|---|---|---|
| answer_accuracy | 0.81546600 | 0.80258549 (-0.01288051) |
| groundedness | 0.83989711 | 0.88871258 (+0.04881547) |
| mean_answer_similarity | 0.83233070 | 0.82441975 (-0.00791094) |
| mean_reciprocal_rank | 1.00000000 | 1.00000000 |
| min_answer_similarity | 0.73544834 | 0.72145893 (-0.01398941) |
| model_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_generation_failures | 0.00000000 | 1.00000000 (+1.00000000) |
| model_parse_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| model_passes | 1.00000000 | 0.00000000 (-1.00000000) |
| model_retrieval_failures | 0.00000000 | 0.00000000 |
| precision_relevancy | 0.87838815 | 0.87955592 (+0.00116777) |
| recall_relevancy | 0.91787541 | 0.91787541 |
| rouge_1 | 0.24666667 | 0.25806452 (+0.01139785) |
| rouge_2 | 0.22818792 | 0.12195122 (-0.10623670) |
| rouge_l | 0.23333333 | 0.15322581 (-0.08010753) |
| Baseline Result | Current Result | |
|---|---|---|
| Model | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte | claude-3-7-sonnet-20250219@h2ogpte |
| Question | What is the purpose of model validation in banking? | |
| Expected answer | The purpose of model validation in banking is to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses, and to identify potential limitations and assumptions, and assess their possible impact. | |
| Actual Answer | According to the document, the purpose of model validation in banking is to verify that models are performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective validation helps ensure that models are sound, identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact (page 9). Model validation serves several key purposes: 1. It helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use (page 10). 2. It provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods, thereby providing information about the source and extent of model risk (page 10). 3. It can reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or predicted values (page 10). 4. It serves as an important check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic (page 10). 5. It helps ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business practices do not create new model limitations (page 10). The document emphasizes that validation is a comprehensive process that should include three core elements: - Evaluation of conceptual soundness, including developmental evidence - Ongoing monitoring, including process verification and benchmarking - Outcomes analysis, including back-testing (page 11) All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to validation, and this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased from or developed by vendors or consultants (page 9). | According to the document, model validation in banking serves several critical purposes: 1. Model validation helps reduce model risk by "identifying model errors, corrective actions, and appropriate use" (page 10). 2. It "provides an assessment of the reliability of a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods" and provides information about "the source and extent of model risk" (page 10). 3. Validation "helps ensure that models are sound" and "identifies potential limitations and assumptions, and assesses their possible impact" (page 9). 4. It can "reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable levels of error" (page 10). 5. Validation serves as "an important check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic" (page 10). 6. Ongoing validation activities "help to ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business practices do not create new model limitations" (page 10). The document emphasizes that validation is a core element of effective model risk management, alongside proper model development, implementation, and use. It should be performed by staff with "appropriate incentives, competence, and influence" and involves a degree of independence from model development and use to ensure objectivity (page 9). |
| Retrieved Context |
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 2
This guidance describes the key aspects of effective model risk management. Section II
explains the purpose and scope of the guidance, and Section III gives an overview of
model risk management. Section IV discusses robust model development,
implementation, and use. Section V describes the components of an effective validation
framework. Section VI explains the salient features of sound governance, policies, and
controls over model development, implementation, use, and validation. Section VII
concludes.
II. PURPOSE AND SCOPE
The purpose of this document is to provide comprehensive guidance for banks on
effective model risk management. Rigorous model validation plays a critical role in
model risk management; however, sound development, implementation, and use of
models are also vital elements. Furthermore, model risk management encompasses
governance and control mechanisms such as board and senior management oversight,
policies and procedures, controls and compliance, and an appropriate incentive and
organizational structure.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
They routinely use models for a broad range of activities, including
underwriting credits; valuing exposures, instruments, and positions; measuring risk;
managing and safeguarding client assets; determining capital and reserve adequacy; and
many other activities. In recent years, banks have applied models to more complex
products and with more ambitious scope, such as enterprise-wide risk measurement,
while the markets in which they are used have also broadened and changed. Changes in
regulation have spurred some of the recent developments, particularly the U.S. regulatory
capital rules for market, credit, and operational risk based on the framework developed
by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Even apart from these regulatory
considerations, however, banks have been increasing the use of data-driven, quantitative
decision-making tools for a number of years.
The expanding use of models in all aspects of banking reflects the extent to which models
can improve business decisions, but models also come with costs. There is the direct cost
of devoting resources to develop and implement models properly. There are also the
potential indirect costs of relying on models, such as the possible adverse consequences
(including financial loss) of decisions based on models that are incorrect or misused.
Those consequences should be addressed by active management of model risk.
[Page
Break]
|
Effective model validation helps reduce model risk by identifying model errors,
corrective actions, and appropriate use. It also provides an assessment of the reliability of
a given model, based on its underlying assumptions, theory, and methods. In this way, it
provides information about the source and extent of model risk. Validation also can
reveal deterioration in model performance over time and can set thresholds for acceptable
levels of error, through analysis of the distribution of outcomes around expected or
predicted values. If outcomes fall consistently outside this acceptable range, then the
models should be redeveloped.
[Page
Break]
Validation reports should articulate model aspects that were reviewed, highlighting
potential deficiencies over a range of financial and economic conditions, and determining
whether adjustments or other compensating controls are warranted. Effective validation
reports include clear executive summaries, with a statement of model purpose and an
accessible synopsis of model and validation results, including major limitations and key
assumptions.
VII. CONCLUSION
This document has provided comprehensive guidance on effective model risk
management. Many of the activities described in this document are common industry
practice. But all banks should confirm that their practices conform to the principles in this
guidance for model development, implementation, and use, as well as model validation.
Banks should also ensure that they maintain strong governance and controls to help
manage model risk, including internal policies and procedures that appropriately reflect
the risk management principles described in this guidance. Details of model risk
management practices may vary from bank to bank, as practical application of this
guidance should be commensurate with a bank's risk exposures, its business activities,
and the extent and complexity of its model use.
As this section has explained, robust model development, implementation, and use is
important to model risk management. But it is not enough for model developers and users
to understand and accept the model. Because model risk is ultimately borne by the bank
as a whole, the bank should objectively assess model risk and the associated costs and
benefits using a sound model-validation process.
[Page
Break]
Previous guidance and other publications issued by the OCC and the Federal Reserve on
the use of models pay particular attention to model validation. [Footnote
2
- For instance, the OCC provided guidance on model risk, focusing on model validation, in OCC 2000-16
(May 30, 2000), other bulletins, and certain subject matter booklets of the Comptroller's Handbook. The
Federal Reserve issued SR Letter 09-01, "Application of the Market Risk Rule in Bank Holding Companies
and State Member Banks," which highlights various concepts pertinent to model risk management,
including standards for validation and review, model validation documentation, and back-testing. The
Federal Reserve's Trading and Capital-Markets Activities Manual also discusses validation and model risk
management. In addition, the advanced-approaches risk-based capital rules (12 CFR 3, Appendix C; 12
CFR 208, Appendix F; and 12 CFR 225, Appendix G) contain explicit validation requirements for subject
banking organizations.
End
of
Footnote
2.]
Validation activities should continue on an ongoing basis after a model goes into use, to
track known model limitations and to identify any new ones. Validation is an important
check on model use during periods of benign economic and financial conditions, when
estimates of risk and potential loss can become overly optimistic, and when the data at
hand may not fully reflect more stressed conditions. Ongoing validation activities help to
ensure that changes in markets, products, exposures, activities, clients, or business
practices do not create new model limitations. For example, if credit risk models do not
incorporate underwriting changes in a timely manner, flawed and costly business
decisions could be made before deterioration in model performance becomes apparent.
Banks should conduct a periodic review—at least annually but more frequently if
warranted—of each model to determine whether it is working as intended and if the
existing validation activities are sufficient. Such a determination could simply affirm
previous validation work, suggest updates to previous validation activities, or call for
additional validation activities. Material changes to models should also be subject to
validation. It is generally good practice for banks to ensure that all models undergo the
full validation process, as described in the following section, at some fixed interval,
including updated documentation of all activities.
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 9
V. MODEL VALIDATION
Model validation is the set of processes and activities intended to verify that models are
performing as expected, in line with their design objectives and business uses. Effective
validation helps ensure that models are sound. It also identifies potential limitations and
assumptions, and assesses their possible impact. As with other aspects of effective
challenge, model validation should be performed by staff with appropriate incentives,
competence, and influence.
All model components, including input, processing, and reporting, should be subject to
validation; this applies equally to models developed in-house and to those purchased
from or developed by vendors or consultants. The rigor and sophistication of validation
should be commensurate with the bank's overall use of models, the complexity and
materiality of its models, and the size and complexity of the bank's operations.
Validation involves a degree of independence from model development and use.
Generally, validation should be done by people who are not responsible for development
or use and do not have a stake in whether a model is determined to be valid.
Independence is not an end in itself but rather helps ensure that incentives are aligned
with the goals of model validation. While independence may be supported by separation
of reporting lines, it should be judged by actions and outcomes, since there may be
additional ways to ensure objectivity and prevent bias. As a practical matter, some
validation work may be most effectively done by model developers and users; it is
essential, however, that such validation work be subject to critical review by an
independent party, who should conduct additional activities to ensure proper validation.
Overall, the quality of the process is judged by the manner in which models are subject to
critical review. This could be determined by evaluating the extent and clarity of
documentation, the issues identified by objective parties, and the actions taken by
management to address model issues.
Outcomes analysis and the other elements of the validation process may reveal significant
errors or inaccuracies in model development or outcomes that consistently fall outside the
bank's predetermined thresholds of acceptability. In such cases, model adjustment,
recalibration, or redevelopment is warranted. Adjustments and recalibration should be
governed by the principle of conservatism and should undergo independent review.
Material changes in model structure or technique, and all model redevelopment, should
be subject to validation activities of appropriate range and rigor before implementation.
At times banks may have a limited ability to use key model validation tools like back-
testing or sensitivity analysis for various reasons, such as lack of data or of price
observability. In those cases, even more attention should be paid to the model's
limitations when considering the appropriateness of model usage, and senior management
should be fully informed of those limitations when using the models for decision making.
Such scrutiny should be applied to individual models and models in the aggregate.
In addition to independence, banks can support appropriate incentives in validation
through compensation practices and performance evaluation standards that are tied
directly to the quality of model validations and the degree of critical, unbiased review. In
addition, corporate culture plays a role if it establishes support for objective thinking and
encourages questioning and challenging of decisions.
Staff doing validation should have the requisite knowledge, skills, and expertise. A high
level of technical expertise may be needed because of the complexity of many models,
both in structure and in application. These staff also should have a significant degree of
familiarity with the line of business using the model and the model's intended use. A
model's developer is an important source of information but cannot be relied on as an
objective or sole source on which to base an assessment of model quality.
Staff conducting validation work should have explicit authority to challenge developers
and users and to elevate their findings, including issues and deficiencies. The individual
or unit to whom those staff report should have sufficient influence or stature within the
[Page
Break]
SR Letter 11-7
Attachment
Page 3
III. OVERVIEW OF MODEL RISK MANAGEMENT
For the purposes of this document, the term model refers to a quantitative method,
system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, financial, or mathematical theories,
techniques, and assumptions to process input data into quantitative estimates. A model
consists of three components: an information input component, which delivers
assumptions and data to the model; a processing component, which transforms inputs into
estimates; and a reporting component, which translates the estimates into useful business
information. Models meeting this definition might be used for analyzing business
strategies, informing business decisions, identifying and measuring risks, valuing
exposures, instruments or positions, conducting stress testing, assessing adequacy of
capital, managing client assets, measuring compliance with internal limits, maintaining
the formal control apparatus of the bank, or meeting financial or regulatory reporting
requirements and issuing public disclosures. The definition of model also covers
quantitative approaches whose inputs are partially or wholly qualitative or based on
expert judgment, provided that the output is quantitative in nature. [Footnote
3
- While outside the scope of this guidance, more qualitative approaches used by banking organizations—
i.e., those not defined as models according to this guidance—should also be subject to a rigorous control
process.
End
of
Footnote
3.]
Business units are generally responsible for the model risk associated with their business
strategies. The role of model owner involves ultimate accountability for model use and
performance within the framework set by bank policies and procedures. Model owners
should be responsible for ensuring that models are properly developed, implemented, and
used. The model owner should also ensure that models in use have undergone appropriate
validation and approval processes, promptly identify new or changed models, and
provide all necessary information for validation activities.
Model risk taken by business units should be controlled. The responsibilities for risk
controls may be assigned to individuals, committees, or a combination of the two, and
include risk measurement, limits, and monitoring. Other responsibilities include
managing the independent validation and review process to ensure that effective
challenge takes place. Appropriate resources should be assigned for model validation and
for guiding the scope and prioritization of work. Issues and problems identified through
validation and other forms of oversight should be communicated by risk-control staff to
relevant individuals and business users throughout the organization, including senior
management, with a plan for corrective action. Control staff should have the authority to
restrict the use of models and monitor any limits on model usage. While they may grant
exceptions to typical procedures of model validation on a temporary basis, that authority
should be subject to other control mechanisms, such as timelines for completing
validation work and limits on model use.
[Page
Break]
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